Posted on 11/30/2009 7:16:17 PM PST by delacoert
The glib answer to this is to suggest that she'd do the party a great service by not running at all. Yesterday I wrote that she's a "wrecker not a uniter" and that she could hijack the primary season to disastrous effect. That's clearly one possibility. But there are others, including some which might actually help the GOP and not merely by demonstrating the limits of Palinism and, consequently, lancing that particular boil.
Though I think he under-estimates Palin's fund-raising potential, Daniel Larison runs through some of the [reasons?] that make it most unlikely that Palin can actually win the GOP nomination. And as Daniel says, right now the most probable beneficiary of a Palin candidacy is our old friend Shameless Mitt Romney.
Until now Romney has been tacking towards the nationalist base. But Mitt's not very good at phoney populism and it shows. Put Palin in the race, however, and the equation changes: there's no point in Romney going after the type of voters most attracted to Palin (and, to a lesser extent, Mike Huckabee) which, mercifully for him, might spare Romney the embarrassment of trying, once again, to be something he's not. That would give Romney the space, and the motivation, to focus on what he does best: present himself as the problem-solvig technocrat who knows how to get things done.
True, there remains the problem of his Mormonism and his well-earned reputation for flip-floppery but in a field of adolescent midgets (thus far) Romney has the chance to present himself as the only grown-up in the room. Since the GOP, unless it changes the rules, awards delegates on a winner-takes-all basis, Romney only needs a plurality of voters to prevail. When push comes to shove, the Republican party will decide against lobotomising itself.
This, then, presents Romney with the opportunity to run the campaign he should have run in 2004. He's never going to be an exciting candidate and he should probably cease trying to be such. Putting Palin in the race, however, allows Romney to be Romney without having to pander (too much!) or make a fool of himself by trying to persuade the Palinistas that, deep down, he's one of them.
All this may yet change, not least since it's possible that other candidates more exciting than Tim Pawlenty will also join the fray. But in as much as she serves a useful purpose, Palin's presence in the race allows Romney to concentrate on what he does best and, should he win the nomination, escape the primary season without having destroyed the GOP's chances to put up a decent fight in the fall.
As I say, this is all some distance away, but, at least potentially, this is one scenario in which Palin could actually help, not hurt, the Republican party: she would make the eventual nominee look much more respectable than might be the case if he has to spend the primary season wrestling for the Palin constituency. In other words, by providing something to run against, she helps the party become the kind of sensible, pragmatic, problem-focused, grown-up organisation that might actually be worth voting for...
LOL. Yes.
A one time only, has-been, popcorn fart in the wind.
The write of this article is delusional..!
They did that earlier with "The Huck" (Huckabee).
I think it runs through their minds that Romney, their guy, has a religious affiliation that might make it difficult for Conservatives to vote for him, so, give those folks a choice ~ "You can vote for Romney, or you can vote for this here Baptist preacher boy".
Here we see it happening with Sarah where the clear implication is that "You can vote for Romney, or you can vote for this here ex-Catholic Holy Roller".
The Mitbots keep their real affiliation correct, and then peddle this stuff from whatever sources are handy. This time it's London. Next time it'll be Madrid (for the Hispanic vote).
No guys, it won't work. Conservatives have voted for Mormons before, and Jews, and Baptists, and more recently Holy Rollers.
The question is the candidate and his or her reputation for policy consistency ON OUR SIDE.
She fought against the GOP “blue-blood elitist” and beat them in NY23.
From when she backed Hoffman, his numbers started shooting up, even as the GOP establishment candidate Scozzafaza’s numbers collapsed, leading to her eventual withdrawal from the campaign.
Back in Alaska, she took on the GOP establishment power brokers and smacked them but good.
The GOP establishment don't have a very good record when it comes to fighting Sarah Palin.
Do you mean the George and Mitt Romney that stormed out on Goldwater at the 1964 convention, or the George Romney that was running as the antiwar republican presidential candidate while his son was avoiding the draft in France? They did not march with MLK either. The George and Mitt Romney that belonged to a racist religion even into the Carter years?
Or the George and Mitt Romney that were proabortion in 1970, years before RoeVWade, or the Mitt Romney that was so anti-Reagan that he dropped his republican party registration to protest Reagan?
Or the Mitt Romney that said this about Jesse Helms? "I'm not a partisan politician. My hope is that, after this election, it will be the moderates of both parties who will control the Senate, not the Jesse Helmses."
Because 65 yr old moderate technocrats with no personality or charisma have such a stellar track record in Presidential elections. I don’t think one bland technocrat has ever won an election. Ever. In all of US history. And that’s just the start.
Romney’s bigger problem is that Iowa has already demonstrated that it has seen through his act. He couldn’t even finish close to Huckabee despite outspending him 10-1 and spending way more time campaigning in the state. And that was when no one knew who Huckabee was until Labor Day.
He couldn’t break through in a field where the establishment backed him and no one liked McCain or Giuliani and Fred had to be dragged kicking and screaming from Law and Order for something that he clearly was never all that interested in. And he’s going to do better against someone who conservatives may actually be excited about and who hasn’t made their name by trashing them to every media stooge they can find. He couldn’t break through against guys like McCain and Giuliani who maxed out at routinely drawing crowds in the dozens at their events and he’ll do better against someone who when they say crowds in the dozens, they’ll means dozens...of thousands.
Iowa was 90% conservative, 45% very conservative, and 60% evangelical in 2008. Largely rural. Big on things like abortion, hunting and the outdoors. Not fertile ground for a moderate technocrat from Beacon Hill. Especially one who was already soundly rejected by Iowans after he put on a full court press. And if Palin wins Iowa, much like Obama, the game will be over.
He’ll also have the fact that the media will realize that Romney as the nominee will cost them billions if not hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue and they won’t want that to happen.
But, hey, go with the bland technocrat senior citizen with no charisma or personality who wants to be the GOP standard bearer and is on tape in a yr where conservatives were winning everywhere proudly proclaiming that he was an independent during the apogee of conservative Republican politics during his lifetime(and doesn’t want to return to the Reagan era) and who is also on tape stridently asserting that he will “protect and defend a woman’s right to choose”. See how far that gets you. Good luck.
The word pragmatist fits. It means, basically, unprincipled. He is an able man, but untrustworthy, in the line of Henry Clay, James G. Blaine, and Richard Nixon.
Exactly. When I hear talk about taking back the House or Senate I think, "Why? We've got Hastert Repubs in leadership of both houses. What's the point of putting them back in charge?"
What's the point of putting someone in charge who will make the machine run more efficiently...maybe...for awhile?
We need someone who is willing to go in and clean house (again, no pun intended) kick butt and take names. That is Sarah. It is most definitely not Mitt Romney.
correct secret ???
I have the same gut feeling about the dodgy behavior of Mittbots.
This form of studied (practiced presentation) public face hiding a secret agenda isn't too hard to spot.
Agreed. I only hope we are not doing the same thing to Sarah Palin that was done to obama; making her a legend in her own time. One person can only do so much, she needs an army of help in the congress. If we don’t clean house fully and give her fresh, unentrenched blood to work with, of what use will it be, in reality? This has to start in 2010, or we are just setting ourselves up to look like the obamabots did........
I am voting for Sarah, no matter how she runs.
Please take me off your ping list.
Palin’s presence in the race allows Romney to concentrate on what he does best
_________________________________________________
What is that ???
Brush the hair dye in each week ???
Apply the Botox to his face ???
Get an even tan at the tanning bed ???
Perfect his down hill racer form ???
Abuse his dog ???
Teach those lazy gorky boys of his how to be liberals like their Dad and Granny and Grandpa ???
Have I guessed the answer ???
Chase reporters around a store arguing loudly ???
Boast at a radio station that several hbigh placed mormons are pro-abortion and Democrats ???
Hire more illegal aliens ???
Am I close yet ???
Pass more RomneyCare legislation complete with $50 abortions ???
Endorse another Gay pride Parade ???
Surely I got one right ???
Appoint another liberal judge ???
Appoint more Planned Parenthood staff members to “health panels”
Raise more taxes ???
Ban more Boy Scouts from public events ??
I’m not giving up...there are SOOOOOOO many possiblilities...
Run against Ted Kennedy as the more liberal candidate ???
Spend another 90 million dollars trying to buy the White House...Better make that 150 ...inflation...better chance of slithering in...
PHEW !!!!
What was the question ???
If Sarah does not win and one of the two retreads win in the primary I am going to site the election out. If Sarah loses two someone who is not on the radar yet then I will consider the situation based on the persons track record. Mitt, or Huckster equals a lose for the GOP. I would like to see Sarah Palin win in the primaries even if the result is a GOP loss, because I would like America to actually have a clear choice between two different ideologies. To many elections give the impression we live within a one party system.
I’m talking media exposure. Media exposure and straw polls are two different beasts. Pawlenty seems to get a lot of media attention. Afterall, it was the media who chose McCain as the GOP candidate in 2008. He was not my first choice.
You’re right. Romney’s only hope was that Huckabee would split social conservatives from Sarah. With it looking less and less likely that Huckabee will be able to do anything to hurt Palin, Romney will be totally out of luck. Social conservatives, especially in the South, hate Romney. Huckabee’s votes will go to Palin not him.
Thanks for the ping!
We'll see what Sarah has to say.
I do not trust Romney. He is a politician through and through...just like Newt. They are the “finger to the air”, trying to see which way the wind is blowing, not standing on principle when it is unpopular. There are some things that you can waffle a little on, and some things you must stand firm, regardless. I do not see Mitt as that kind. He will go with whatever he sees as politically expedient. Shame on him and the many others like him. No wonder people are upset with politicians...most of them, anyway. It is rare to find many that are trully committed to conservative ideals.
I’d like to see Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn run as a team for the presidency. Palin and Bachmann would be good candidates, as well. I liked Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson, but I don’t know if they’ll run again. We’ll see. If we have good candidates running, we might draw more interest in voters. 2008 was a disaster for the Republicans with the democrats helping to secure McCain’s nomination. We cannot let that happen again. We have to be a lot more active in the primaries!
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