Unless Medina is a Paulite, she could take on Paul in the primary, where she’d have a much better chance of winning than if she runs for governor.
She’d have about as much chance against Paul as she does winning statewide in the governor primary, slim and none and slim just left the building.
Medina is a Paulite and that is where most of her support will come from. If noone gets a majority in the Republican Primary, there will be a runoff between the top 2, so theoreticallly, those voting for Medina can still vote against Hutchison in the runoff. However many of the Paulites I’ve talked too are too “pure” to vote for Perry and will simply sit out the runoff.