So what the Authors are saying is that the Iranian Mullahs are not looking for the Return of the 12th Imam ,that they are not Hommicidal Maniacs and all their Bluster is just that . Ok I am Convinced
The authors present an elaborate straw man, and, not surprisingly, find fault with it. In reality, they don’t know how Israel would execute a strike, or Iran’s reaction to it. They also don’t know whether deterrence will work.
I’d think it likely, if the Iranian government were terribly concerned about Israeli retribution to a nuclear strike, that they’d attack Israel via one of their surrogates, who aren’t. They would calculate that they would thereby have sufficient deniability to avoid nuclear retribution.
Furthermore, I think there’s a significant chance that the Iranian government would not care if there were Israeli retribution, and would go ahead and nuke Israel, come what may.
This article is crap.
They contend that the Iranians will be deterred by a MAD policy....they will not be...they are NUTS!
They also don’t give all plausible methods the Israelis could use for an attack...they either ignore them or don’t have enough imagination to come up with them.
I posted a workable plan that could be used to destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions a couple weeks ago. The plan is pretty extreme but the Israelis will do something this drastic if the only other option is annihilation.
Any Israeli attack would likely be proceeded by EMP producing weapons to hinder Iranian response.
I don’t have the exact quote handy, but W. Churchill thought about this situation a good deal, and said to the effect that it is best to stop a foe, when he is of a small threat and your chances are good. Next best is to stop your foe when he grows to be a big threat, and your chances are slim. Avoid a situation where your foe has grown to the point of your chances being nil. But, in any case, it is better to fight your foe with just cause on your side, against all odds, rather than be enslaved (or dead).
Drones.
The author does not understand the difference between practical terrorists and apocalyptic terrorists. You can deal with practical terrorists; they have goals and plans and are looking for a logical solution to their problem. Their means may be horrible and inflict pain but there is a relationship between their terror acts and the means of achieving their goals. Apocalyptic terrorists (Iran) are driven by intensely personal ambitions and tend to think of anyone who doesn’t think like them as the enemy. You can’t deal with an apocalyptic terrorist, they don’t mind dying if they get to kill you in the process. They are merciless and driven by passion. The only way to deal with apocalyptic terrorists is to kill them outright before they kill you.
a study by Abdullah Toukan and Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Never before has such an open, detailed and thorough study of Israel's offensive options been published. The authors of the 114-page study meticulously gathered all available data on Israel's military capabilities and its nuclear program, and on Iran's nuclear developments and aerial defenses, as well as both countries' missile inventory.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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Wouldn’t destroying the power supply to the centrifuges in effect shut them down?
I recall a TV program concerning Oak Ridge, circa late 40’s and 50’s, and the size of the centrifuges back then. The building housing them was enormous.
How much downsizing the centrifuges has taken place? Enough to be able to bury thousands of them?
It’s a shame that Iran has been allowed to progress this far.
IMHO the supply of oil has been the deal killer. Iran’s ability to close the Straits of Hormuz.
And that could have been solved 15-20 years ago with domestic production.
The window of opportunity to stop Ian from developing nuclear weapons is rapidly closing and even with the possibility of a temporary world oil shortage (and all that would entail--), Israel must do it if they are to survive as a nation. I pray to God we will help them, but I fear our nation under Barack Obama will a hindrance instead of a helper.
To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, "The Liberal Democrat controlled US Government is the problem here!"
Wrong targeting. Instead, bomb the Mullahs and their government out of existence — and let the real Iranians take over.