When Mark Schweiker became acting Governor in 2001, he had zero interest in running for re-election. Schweiker’s boost in approval ratings came in the summer of 2002, when the Western PA miners were trapped. Its unknown how Schweiker would fare in an election campaign.
In the case of Richard Thornburgh, outside factors were at work in the special election 1991. The economy then was in a recession. Harris Wofford claimed to be a pro-life Dem. Wofford, with the aid of James Carville, blamed the recession on Bush I and promised health care reform. Discontent with the recession allowed Wofford to pull that upset. Wofford’s victory provided the blue print for Clinton to beat Bush.
It was pretty clear the Dems lucked out when he opted out. A lot of Republicans were calling on him to run instead of Mike Fisher because he could break the party-swapping Gubernatorial curse. I think Schweiker would've won by anywhere from 5-10% (and '02 was a pretty good GOP year).
"In the case of Richard Thornburgh, outside factors were at work in the special election 1991. The economy then was in a recession. Harris Wofford claimed to be a pro-life Dem. Wofford, with the aid of James Carville, blamed the recession on Bush I and promised health care reform. Discontent with the recession allowed Wofford to pull that upset. Wofford’s victory provided the blue print for Clinton to beat Bush."
Thornburgh was an uninspiring establishment candidate. The fact that he lost to a nobody like Wofford just demonstrated that. The PA GOP should've recruited someone more exciting (hell, even Santorum could've taken a shot, fresh off his victory over a Dem incumbent in a Dem-leaning House district). It would've been interesting if Casey had gotten his initial choice of Lee Iacocca, but Iacocca is all over the map politically.