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Grim forecast for U.S. home-buying season
International Herald Tribune ^ | March 8, 2009 | Vikas Bajaj

Posted on 03/08/2009 2:04:07 PM PDT by FocusNexus

The "For Sale" signs are just starting to sprout, but already experts worry that this spring home-buying season in the United States will be even grimmer than the last.

Despite tentative signs of recovery in hard-hit areas like California and Florida, the broader housing market is far from hitting bottom, economists said. Across much of America, prices are likely to keep falling through 2010.

So the March-to-June season, when most homes are bought and sold, will be bad this year - perhaps the worst since the market began to spiral down in 2006.

Across the nation, 19 million houses and apartments - nearly one in every seven - are vacant, the highest percentage since the 1960s. But only about six million of those homes are for sale or for rent. That means millions more could still flood onto the market, depressing prices further.

For would-be sellers, the bad news keeps coming. Last week, one new report showed that one in nine mortgages was delinquent or in foreclosure, while another showed that January contract signings for sales of existing homes fell at their fastest pace in two years.

(Excerpt) Read more at iht.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bhoeconomy; economy; homes; housingmarket; marketcrash; obama; realestate
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And add to this Obama's plan to elminate tax deduction for mortgages -- now for only "the rich", but once that starts, there is no way to be certain that it won't be eliminated for others as well.

Obama's Budget Seeks to Shrink Tax Benefits of Owning

1 posted on 03/08/2009 2:04:07 PM PDT by FocusNexus
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To: FocusNexus

I’ve bought 2 homes in as many weeks. The market seems to be working just fine for me.


2 posted on 03/08/2009 2:10:54 PM PDT by South40 (Obama lied; the economy died.)
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To: FocusNexus

If you have a situation where leading politicians talk about a economic catastrophe that we might never get out of, a cautious and responsible person would naturally be a bit wary of committing to such a large purchase- even if things are going fine personally for him.


3 posted on 03/08/2009 2:15:55 PM PDT by I_Like_Spam
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To: South40

Last week simeone came back to see my house for a second time and today a young couple showed a lot of interest. Now I have to keep my fingers crossed and hope they don’t offer half of what I am asking. I sit and wait.


4 posted on 03/08/2009 2:17:04 PM PDT by heylady
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To: FocusNexus
Once houses are priced at sane prices, where the buyers can afford a down payment PLUS interest PLUS the principal without gimmicks and without going bankrupt (ya know, like back in the days before the Bubble Idiocy), then houses will start selling like hotcakes again.

Until then, buyers won't touch them any more than they will touch a rattlesnake.

Foolish sellers that bought at Bubble prices and are now "upside down" want the buyers to be Greater Fools and they are keeping the prices above pre-Bubble levels but the buyers today know a rattlesnake from a kitten and they aren't about to pet those rattlesnakes.

5 posted on 03/08/2009 2:18:03 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: heylady

In some places the housing market was starting to bottom and turn around, but with the limitation on the deductability of mortgage interest, the market could keep on going down.

Good luck with selling your house, if you have some interested buyers, you are lucky. Hope you will sell your house close to what you are asking forit.


6 posted on 03/08/2009 2:21:26 PM PDT by FocusNexus ("Good and evil are present in this world, and between the two there can be no compromise." GW Bush)
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To: South40
I’ve bought 2 homes in as many weeks.

Good for you, I'm thinking about it. Think housing is near the bottom yet?

7 posted on 03/08/2009 2:26:25 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (Selah)
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To: heylady
Now I have to keep my fingers crossed and hope they don’t offer half of what I am asking.

I'd be surprised if you didn't get some "insult" type offers.

8 posted on 03/08/2009 2:28:01 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (Selah)
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To: FocusNexus

Around here, home prices are just as high as they were.


9 posted on 03/08/2009 2:50:33 PM PDT by bgill
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To: Graybeard58

“Good for you, I’m thinking about it. Think housing is near the bottom yet?”

First off all markets correct below their trend line. Second, you’ll know the bottom is near when the average home can be comfortably purchased by the average salary for the area. Till then, expect housing to continue to fall especially if the homes prices in your area haven’t dropped at least 50% from their all time high


10 posted on 03/08/2009 2:53:07 PM PDT by DoingTheFrenchMistake
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To: Graybeard58

I’ve bought 2 homes in as many weeks.

Good for you, I’m thinking about it. Think housing is near the bottom yet?

Try 2012. The market is and will continue to go down. Buying now just guarantees that you’ll be a knife catcher, the next wave starts 2nd quarter this year.


11 posted on 03/08/2009 3:00:53 PM PDT by OregonRancher (Some days, it's not even worth chewing through the restraints)
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To: DoingTheFrenchMistake

Correction: housing has to be within 2 to 2.5 times annual
income, anything higher and you won’t fit within the 31/36%
rule. If local median income is 50k, then the most the median can afford is $125k home with a fixed 6% 30 year loan.


12 posted on 03/08/2009 3:04:06 PM PDT by OregonRancher (Some days, it's not even worth chewing through the restraints)
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To: South40

Mrs. is a broker, she’s been very busy lately...


13 posted on 03/08/2009 3:05:18 PM PDT by steveo
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To: South40

It ain’t the buying that’s grim, it’s the selling.


14 posted on 03/08/2009 3:06:09 PM PDT by Let's Roll (Stop paying ACORN to destroy America! Cut off their government funding!)
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To: steveo

We have 1 in escrow, 2 in counters and working half a dozen prospects all buyers. The buyers are out and they have a lot to chose from.


15 posted on 03/08/2009 3:08:51 PM PDT by nufsed
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To: bgill

Where are you around?


16 posted on 03/08/2009 3:09:31 PM PDT by nufsed
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To: FocusNexus

THIS IS THE NEW YORK TIMES THEREFORE IT’S CRAP AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THIS WEBSITE! IF WE DON’T READ IT WE DON’T HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT OR DISCUSS IT!

:) Just joining the FR Ostrich Brigade


17 posted on 03/08/2009 3:18:04 PM PDT by Lorianne
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To: FocusNexus
But...but...but doesn't this mean houses will be more affordable? Isn't that what Fannie and Freddie and the Fed were trying to do, make houses affordable? For home buyers, it sounds great to me. But then I own my house free and clear, and I'm not selling
18 posted on 03/08/2009 3:25:27 PM PDT by JoeFromSidney
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To: South40

I don’t know how things are generally here, think it has affected McMansions and condos, market glutted with them B4 the recession. I live in an older neighborhood in a very desirable part of town. Third house down, cute little bungalow, sold in less than a week, which has always been usual, don’t know if they took a hit on the price. Some people want these older homes in nice neighborhoods with better school. Only one house failed to sell in my neighborhood because the asking price was way too high. I don’t think the full impact has hit my area yet. If every third house were for sale due to repo like some areas I’ve seen, it would be quite a different matter.


19 posted on 03/08/2009 3:36:57 PM PDT by Aliska
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To: JoeFromSidney
But...but...but doesn't this mean houses will be more affordable? Isn't that what Fannie and Freddie and the Fed were trying to do, make houses affordable?

"Affordable", of course, does not mean the prices return to reality, it means finding new and unethical ways of loaning vast amounts of money to everyone who is within megaphone distance of being qualified so they can afford to pay those inflated prices and in so doing prop up the system of selling mortgage-backed securities to pension funds and foreign governments around the world.

In particular, commercial real estate prices returning to reality will make everybody's 401K go down another 40%, on top of the headline-making stock declines. Those were the "safe" fixed income investments you were told about.

20 posted on 03/08/2009 3:46:46 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ("One man's 'magic' is another man's engineering. 'Supernatural' is a null word." -- Robert Heinlein)
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