Posted on 02/04/2009 4:40:06 PM PST by engrpat
President Obama's economic recovery package will actually hurt the economy more in the long run than if he were to do nothing, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.
CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation, said the House and Senate bills will help in the short term but result in so much government debt that within a few years they would crowd out private investment, actually leading to a lower Gross Domestic Product over the next 10 years than if the government had done nothing.
CBO estimates that by 2019 the Senate legislation would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent on net. [The House bill] would have similar long-run effects, CBO said in a letter to Sen. Judd Gregg, New Hampshire Republican, who was tapped by Mr. Obama on Tuesday to be Commerce Secretary
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Not really:
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?cat=15
Testimony on the Economy and Stimulus
Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 by Douglas Elmendorf
This morning I testified before the House Budget Committee on The State of the Economy and Issues in Developing an Effective Policy Response (click here for full text of my written testimony). My testimony discussed both the basis for CBOs forecast (released earlier this month, click here for text) and reviewed the financial and nonfinancial developments that have occurred since that forecast was finalized. So far, the news has been generally consistent with the agencys expectations and does not alter the bleak outlook.
I touched on three key points this morning:
1. The economy is currently weathering a recession that started more than a year ago, and absent a change in fiscal policy, CBO projects that the shortfall in the nations output relative to potential levels will be the largest in duration and depth since the Depression of the 1930s.
2. Most economists agree that both significant fiscal stimulus and additional financial and monetary policy approaches are needed.
3. H.R. 1, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, would, in CBOs judgment, provide a substantial boost to economic activity over the next several years relative to what would occur without the legislation. (For the CBO cost estimate of H.R. 1, click here)
As the possibility of another round of fiscal stimulus is debated, it is not a surprise that employment effects of stimulus have emerged as a key measuring stick. According to CBOs estimates, with enactment of H.R. 1, the number of jobs would be between 0.8 million and 2.1 million higher at the end of this year, 1.2 million to 3.6 million higher at the end of next year, and 0.7 million to 2.1 million higher at the end of 2011 than under current law.
Did anyone read the rest?
“The agency projected the Senate bill would produce between 1.4 percent and 4.1 percent higher growth in 2009 than if there was no action. For 2010, the plan would boost growth by 1.2 percent to 3.6 percent.
CBO did project the bill would create jobs, though by 2011 the effects would be minuscule.”
2.6% to 7.7% in the next two years in exchange for a .1-.3% hit in 10 years?
I’d take that.
Just sayin’
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