Have we hit bottom yet? Questions and predictions for 2009

NY Daily News ^ | 12/31/08 | Michael Goodwin

[TigerLikesRooster]

Have we hit bottom yet? Questions and predictions for 2009

Wednesday, December 31st 2008, 4:00 AM

/snip

1. Up, Up and Away? Like a fidgety kid on a long car trip, we want to know whether the misery on Wall Street will last. The adult version of "Are we there yet?" is "Have we hit bottom?"

Sorry to be a Gloomy Gus, but the worst is yet to come.

If you believe the economic collapse resulted from too much easy money, there is little reason for optimism. Both our governments and our families continue to pile up debts that exceed the ability or will to repay them. Something has to give.

Prediction: Look out below.

2. The New Normal. Remember when it was good to be normal and bad to be obnoxious? That changed about the time Hollywood started making heroes out of rebels without causes and ridiculing those who play by the rules. Reality TV, most of which involves bikinis and hot tubs, is creating a new generation of hedonists.

I got a dose of the arrested development result when I politely asked a teenage lout to turn down his blaring radio. He told me what to do with myself before declaring, "This is America, man." Indeed it is.

Prediction: Nice guys and girls will finish last in 2009.

3. Clinton versus Obama. The next President has fallen in love with the Abraham Lincoln concept of a cabinet full of rivals, but Abe never faced Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Obama's decision to nominate Hillary as his secretary of state gets her out of Washington while tapping her talent, but it won't stop their quest for a restoration of the Clinton presidency. Nothing can.

Prediction: First stories on friction surface within six months.

[montanajoe]

I think this is a question that will be asked every year about this time for the next decade.

[Paine in the Neck]

Yes...or no. It depends on how off-the-leash the new Dem Congress is. If (I know, BIG ‘if’) they temper their desired headlong rush to foll-on socialism in the face of fiscal reality we may see a stagnant economy until mid-terms or, failing a GOP recovery then, 8 years out. If, on the other hand, Obama and Congress race to implement all their socialist wishes while the crisis is still hot, then we are in BIG trouble and Major Depression looms.

[Paine in the Neck]

“foll-on” = full-on

[webschooner]

Forget the stock market — watch the dollar in relation to other world currencies. If the stock market went sideways all year and the dollar tanked, you are still losing your shirt.

The dollar is what hasn’t even begun to really slide yet, let alone hit bottom. 2009 won’t be pretty.

[bert]

You are correct.

The problem is in the north. Large areas in the south are getting along well. There is a slow down but housing is not in mortal trouble and unemployment has risen but not to crisis levels. Local banks claim to have money and are begging people to come in for loans.

Folks here wish for the Auto industry to go bankrupt and should be calling for the bankruptcy of Michigan and California. The failure of states is necessary before the problem will be resolved

[Le Chien Rouge]

“Liberal blue states in the northeast and midwest will go down the crapper, and government will steal money and resources from functioning conservative red states in the south to prop up the welfare bums and thieves.”

My prediction as well .......and it could be the spark that ignites Civil War 2.......just my opinion

[TSgt]

I have it on good authority that tens of thousands haven’t filed for unemployment yet due to severance pay and their jobs not officially terminating until the end of 08’ This will result in unemployment rocketing up in Q1 and it will not peak until Q2. Couple this with low consumer confidence and the continued declined in home values and sales and the answer is NO.

I predict Q2 to be the bottom with a very slow 3 year recovery...

[TigerLikesRooster]

it could be the spark that ignites Civil War 2

If it breaks out, we may see a new country made up of red states in U.S. and Western interior provinces of Canada along with Alaska all merged. A huge swath of land from Alaska to the Gulf, while keeping out pockets of blue federation on each coast and some in central Mid-West.

[irish guard]

Not sure just yet. Back in the late 20s and early 30s, the Fed never primed the pump as they did last year. The government used social programs to keep people fed, but didn’t encourage entrepreneurial activity back in the 30s. We have a better fed, but the government looks to be trying the same social policies. The market followed a reasonable path back then based on monetary policies and a substantial lack of economic stimulus. We’ll see how things work from here with the stimulus side. Clearly the Fed gets the joke this time around.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Yes, the “New” generation buys 2 dollar bottles of water, spends every dime they can manage to gather for more than a minute, and primps themselves like Paris Hilton. Like, they're all rich and equal, or about to be after their icon moves into the White House.

You see, now that the World has been saved from the evils of industrialization and greed, all that unlimited money coming in from living “Green” will make the dream of “Utopia” real.

So, spend, (mostly other people's money.) eat, drink and turn the evil Capitalistic World inside out. It's a new Human race, perfect in every way! </s

[BenLurkin]

Have we hit bottom yet?

YES.

[6SJ7]

Perfect! The “Wazup” Presidency.

[Fishrrman]

“If it breaks out, we may see a new country made up of red states in U.S. and Western interior provinces of Canada along with Alaska all merged. A huge swath of land from Alaska to the Gulf, while keeping out pockets of blue federation on each coast and some in central Mid-West.”

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2156441/posts?page=150#150

- John

[R. Scott]

A darn good resolution.