Silver, close 2008-12-05
Settle chg open high low prev
Dec '08 (SIZ08) 9.401s -0.090 9.400 9.525 9.135 9.491
Jan '09 (SIF09) 9.401s -0.090 9.420 9.495 9.180 9.491
Feb '09 (SIG09) 9.416s -0.090 9.215 9.440 9.215 9.506
Mar '09 (SIH09) 9.430s -0.090 9.500 9.560 9.125 9.520
May '09 (SIK09) 9.445s -0.092 9.450 9.520 9.250 9.537
Jul '09 (SIN09) 9.459s -0.093 9.290 9.459 9.290 9.552
Sep '09 (SIU09) 9.470s -0.093 9.560 9.560 9.470 9.563
Dec '09 (SIZ09) 9.488s -0.095 9.450 9.488 9.230 9.583
Jan '10 (SIF10) 9.494s -0.095 9.494 9.494 9.494 9.589
Mar '10 (SIH10) 9.506s -0.095 9.506 9.506 9.506 9.601
May '10 (SIK10) 9.516s -0.095 9.516 9.516 9.516 9.611
Jul '10 (SIN10) 9.525s -0.096 9.525 9.525 9.525 9.621
Sep '10 (SIU10) 9.533s -0.096 9.533 9.533 9.533 9.629
Dec '10 (SIZ10) 9.545s -0.096 9.350 9.545 9.350 9.641
Gold, close 2008-12-05
Dec '08 (GCZ08) 750.5s -13.3 764.5 769.6 740.0 763.8
Jan '09 (GCF09) 750.9s -13.3 769.9 769.9 741.1 764.2
Feb '09 (GCG09) 752.2s -13.3 766.7 773.3 741.2 765.5
Apr '09 (GCJ09) 753.7s -13.2 768.7 774.1 743.5 766.9
Jun '09 (GCM09) 755.2s -13.2 773.7 774.0 748.0 768.4
Aug '09 (GCQ09) 756.8s -13.2 772.8 773.0 756.8 770.0
Oct '09 (GCV09) 758.7s -13.1 758.7 758.7 758.7 771.8
Dec '09 (GCZ09) 760.8s -13.0 779.5 779.5 750.0 773.8
Feb '10 (GCG10) 762.8s -13.0 762.3 762.8 762.3 775.8
Apr '10 (GCJ10) 764.8s -13.0 764.8 764.8 764.8 777.8
Jun '10 (GCM10) 766.9s -13.0 766.9 766.9 766.9 779.9
Aug '10 (GCQ10) 769.2s -13.0 769.2 769.2 769.2 782.2
Oct '10 (GCV10) 771.6s -13.0 771.6 771.6 771.6 784.6
Dec '10 (GCZ10) 774.0s -13.0 793.6 810.9 764.4 787.0
OK, so front month is very close to 2nd month? Big deal, this happens lots of times when front month gets close to expiration. The contango **is** shrinking in silver, so what? Not surprising, interest rates (part of the cost of carry) are going through the floor.Your comments about backwardation are bizarre (with the exception of your remarks about the sell-and-deliver arb). You're an old wheat trader -- you know perfectly well when mkts become inverted, f'Heaven's sake: when immediate demand exceeds immediate supply.
They ain't there yet. Show me a $3-4 dollar m/m inversion in GC, and I'll start considering your point. Until then, this stuff belongs in World Weekly News.
Sorry, m'friend, FReegards anyhow.
I don’t understand. Spot gold Friday afternoon was trading 15 PREMIUM to next mos futures. This is a classical arb situation. Ditto for silver. It is trading 13 cents premium to the futures. You also have a suppression of the basis in the back months relative to the front end, which as you know, is a classic spread invite.
I have a great deal of respect for you SAJ. You clearly know a great deal more about the markets and the intricacies of finance than me. My remark to some guy who asked me what the spring planting numbers were was “what’s a ‘spring planting?’ the bid is a quarter, offer the gutters, nickel off the hi of the day and we are long term bullish. As far as anything else goes, we could be trading hubcaps down here and I would not know the difference.”
I would appreciate understanding how you don’t see this in an invitation to arb, and why that is not being exploited?
Thanks in advance