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I am not so shocked, guess I don’t shock easy. I was ‘surprised’ when I saw the polling giving Cao a lead but that prepared me for the possibly. Winning the special (or breaking 40%) for the Emmanuel/Blago/Flanagan/Rosti seat, THAT would shock me.

It’s gonna be very tough to reelect him. He’d be the GOPer in most rat seat since at least RINO liberal Connie Morella. Hopefully the NRCC will have enough cash to fund him and at least allow for the possibility. Surviving ‘10 would be one thing. Surviving black turnout in ‘12 would be another thing. But since the seat must get bigger as the state is dropping a district (this is the one that lost people) it can take on more GOP territory.

Of course should he lose we can play the race card against the democrats.

“first Vietnamese-american Congressman”

And a hell of any unlikely one. From NOLA in 2008?

“Gary Studds “

Ick. And the thing is that seat is and as far as I can tell has been for the past 50 years at least, the most Republican area of Massachusetts in POTUS voting (despite it also housing some ultra liberal gays). Studds first won it in ‘72 as Tricky Dick was almost certainly carrying it. He beat Hastings Keith (R) at the time the only halfway conservative member of the Mass. delegation since Joe Martin. That same year Kerry lost a house race in MA.

“The local papers have been rubbing it our face with nonstop “commerative” issues of Dear Leader since Nov. 5, 2008.”

See the “own of piece of history” Sun Times (or Trib?) reprint commercials? Barf.

Also there are commemorative plates that they started to make so fast they list the electoral votes of Missou and NC as “undecided”. Mind bogglingly revolting.

"Studds first won it in ‘72 as Tricky Dick was almost certainly carrying it. He beat Hastings Keith (R) at the time the only halfway conservative member of the Mass. delegation since Joe Martin. That same year Kerry lost a house race in MA."

Studds challenged Keith in 1970 and nearly won. Keith retired in '72 (because the Dem legislature removed some GOP precincts and moved them into the adjacent district) and Studds faced and beat Republican William Weeks by just 1,200 votes. Weeks was a wealthy State Senator and the son of Ike's Cabinet Secretary Sinclair Weeks.

If Cao is going to hold on in 2010, he's going to have to make a project out of cultivating a name and following in the district. Return to it constantly, do a bunch of ‘listening tours’ etc. And the GOP will have to dump a boat-load of cash into the race and do what they can to depress the h*ll out of Dem turnout.

If he pulls it out in 2010, unless (or even if) there is some extreme re-districting in time for 2012, perhaps the GOP should prep him to face Landrieu.