Obama seems to have gained an edge amongst Independents.
Gallup shows a 4% Obama edge:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108049/Candidate-Support-Political-Party-Ideology.aspx
Zogby:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN3134134020081102
“He said the polling data over the weekend showed that both candidates appeared to be consolidating support among their core supporters — women and independents for Obama, older voters and conservatives for McCain.”
Pew:
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/468.pdf
WSJ poll:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567494708692025.html
ABC/WaPo:
http://abcnews.go.com/politics/PollTracker/fullpage?id=5611512
I am not sure about Rasmussen, as I am not a member of their premium service.
I think it is pretty clear that Obama wins with Independents at this point, as shown by poll after poll.
Zogby is all over the map from one day to the nex. ABC had McCain and 0 tied with independents per National Review, the 4% edge Gallup now shows is razor thin. Not sure what the % differences are with WSJ/Pew.
The biggest cause of the lead is the Dem sampling advantage. Take it away, and you’re looking at a 2 to 3 point nail biter, not a Reagan/Eisenhower style landslide.
If Dems outnumber Republicans by 10% on election days, AND independents vote for Democrats, the GOP is looking at 1932/1964 style wipeout... the party will cease to exist as a force of any kind in national politics for at least the next two years.
Gallup had this a 2 point race a week ago, now it is an 11 point race. Pew had it a 15 point race just DAYS ago, now they have it pegged at 6. Millions of people flipped sides in opposing directions in two different well known polls, at the very same time?
You don’t see anything unusual with the polls this year?