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To: Alvin Poon

What are u talking about ? There’s a thread here this AM from 11/2/2000 that Gore had a 4 point lead in FL ? And countless others. It is well known that Lefty’s always overpoll.


2 posted on 10/31/2008 7:25:10 AM PDT by major-pelham
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To: major-pelham

Heres a poll , 90% of these type threads are started by people with 2008 registration dates.


3 posted on 10/31/2008 7:26:16 AM PDT by icwhatudo (PALIN VID=========>>>>>http://www.overstream.net/view.php?oid=n1ronxelmtin<++++++++)
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To: major-pelham

12 points leads as a matter of fact.


4 posted on 10/31/2008 7:26:48 AM PDT by jveritas
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To: major-pelham
Here are 2004 final polling results compared to the actual results, including MOE.

http://www.ncpp.org/drupal57/files/2004%20Election%20Analysis.pdf

The mean error was 0.9% at the national level, and 1.7% for all state races combined - FL actually polled quite accurately. The 2000 numbers are similar.

McCain needs a large "Bradly Effect", or a disproportionate Republican turnout, or most of the polls have to be substantially oversampling Democrat voters or there has to be a large final-days swing occurring (and likely, he needs some combination of all of these) to turn this election around at the electoral college level.

Does not mean it can't happen, but if these factors are in play they are not reflected in current polling, which shows about the average tightening of a presidential race over the last two weeks.

52 posted on 10/31/2008 8:05:32 AM PDT by M. Dodge Thomas (True, the ship is sinking... but the music is being played with such feeling!)
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