Skip to comments.Poll Inaccuracy: Fact or Fiction?
Posted on 10/31/2008 7:22:56 AM PDT by Alvin Poon
I have been reading with interest on this forum and others how the poll numbers we are seeing are inaccurate. Every poll showing Obama with a lead is readily scoffed at because of some sort of bias or an other.
So i did a simple "google" of the last 2 presidential campaigns to see how accurate the polls really were. I am very sad to say I was not happy with the results of my search. It appears that almost all of the national polls were VERY accurate in their prediction of the outcome. The inaccuracy came from the EXIT polling which is much less scientific.
I am looking for a ray of hope here for McCain, but those claiming the polls are "off" or "you can't trust the polls" do not look to the most recent historical fact: The polls taken right before the last 2 presidential elections have been extremely accurate.
Please tell me why this time it's different.
What are u talking about ? There’s a thread here this AM from 11/2/2000 that Gore had a 4 point lead in FL ? And countless others. It is well known that Lefty’s always overpoll.
Heres a poll , 90% of these type threads are started by people with 2008 registration dates.
12 points leads as a matter of fact.
True. But the only accurate polls will be the ones that come out on Monday. Prior to that they are designed to make news and suppress GOP turnout. We will have to wait until Monday to see what they really think.
Even then there have been exceptions to the rule. Most obvious was the 1980 Reagan landslide, totally missed by pollsters. The other was Gore in 2000 and in some cases Kerry in 2004. I think as the number of polls has grown and the inventions of cell phones and early voting polling is becoming less accurate not more.
That said, McCain does have a hill to climb over the next four days.
Nevertheless... there are a couple of things to consider:
I did research on the 2000 and the 2004 elections polls from to weeks before the election up to the election...Gore maintained a 4-5 pt lead up to the last day....LOST
Kerry maintained a 4-7 pt lead up to the end....LOST...
Maybe you need to look at ALL the polls for those years and do the avg....
Evidence please or GTFO. (IBTZ?)
Acorn ginned up faux new registrants creating a false data set that pollsters have not discounted.
Many Hillary supporters are convinced Obama stole the nomination and are working from inside to defeat him, including lying to pollsters.
The youth vote turnout was factored to high by pollsters and this is born out by statistics from early voting.
No. It’s a secret.
[The polls taken right before the last 2 presidential elections have been extremely accurate.]
Which is why we have seen a HUGE tightening of the polls the last few days!!!
MCCAIN/PALIN have got it in the bag! GOP turnout will be massive and Democrat turnout disappointing! Not to mention the PUMAs that will be voting MAC!!
The polls are over sampling Rats based on fake Rat voter registration numbers and operation chaos voters!
Gee, you noticed that too, huh?
Make that "probable concern troll here"...
Also, undecided voters will break 4:1 for McCain!
Comanche Indian ... Right?
The electoral college is what matters.
If McCain is within 2-3 points nationally, I think he has a good chance at winning.
A majority of the states we need to win, including a blue state (Pennsylvania and I believe New Hampshire), are within the margin of error, so it is doable with a great GOTV effort.
Also there was article here a few weeks back that showed how state polling last election was way off.
We can win this!
We are seeing Democrats getting +7,+5,+10 etc, when in the 2004 election, they were essentially equal.
Your info is so wrong. Apparently you haven’t read the polls for the primaries, nor did you see the MSM polls that showed Kerry ahead not only in FL, but nationally on the Friday before the election. You appear to be an Obama plant.
The state polls are right if you believe that since 2004 and 2006 the democrats suddenly outnumbered the Republicans in red states such as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. In some of these state the Republicans has up to 5 points party ID advantage and now the polls are used with 10 or even 15 points democrats party ID advantage. The polls are right if you believe that it is OK for a pollster to call more people from blue counties than red counties.
These insanely biased polls are being used this year by Obama and the media as the single most important weapon to depress the Republican turnout.
When you vote, you beat these insanely biased polls. Go and vote, ask you family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues to vote for McCain/Palin.
We Vote We Win.
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