FlAttorney, SFARI co-chair
10.25.08: As the National polls, I concur with other GOP colleagues that the Pennsylvania polls should continue to tighten up to election day. However, there is nothing in the data to suggest McCain can win the Keystone State without divine intervention. McCain has not “won” a PA poll since Rasmussen’s April 24, 2008 - McCain +1. This election cycle, Democrats have registered 500,000+ new PA voters. A Republican Presidential candidate has not won PA since 1988. It’s been 20 years and twice Republican Governor Tom Ridge couldn’t deliver PA for the GOP Presidential ticket:
Pennsylvania: Win | Loss <>* Won Nat'l Presidential Election
2004 Kerry(D) 50.9% | G.W. Bush 48.4%*
2000 Gore(D) 50.6% | G.W. Bush 46.4%*
1996 W. Clinton(D) 49.2%* | Dole 40.0%
1992 W. Clinton(D) 45.1%* | H.W. Bush 36.1%
1988 H.W. Bush(R) 50.7%* | Michael Dukakis 48.4%
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Pennsylvania Governors:
Ed Rendell(D) January 21, 2003 - Current
Mark S. Schweiker(R) October 5, 2001 - January 21, 2003
Tom Ridge(R) January 17, 1995 - October 5, 2001
Robert P. Casey(D) January 20, 1987 - January 17, 1995
Dick Thornburgh(R) January 16, 1979 - January 20, 1987
Republicans can say what they want about Ed Rendell but, for a Democrat, he is a good politician that knows how to “shake the trees.” I sincerely hope John wins Pennsylvania, but as a GOP political “insider”, these are the facts as I see them. This stated, only a fool tries to outguess the National voting public.
10.27.08: Why John McCain Continues to Trail Barack Obama in Pennsylvania
10.28.08: Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 86.0% chance of carrying Pennsylvania. If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada. That's very, very tough for McCain to do.
10.28.08 Video: PA Governor Ed Rendell on "The Rachel Maddow Show"
10.29.08: 
TAB