How can Mac be ahead in Tennessee and behind in VA?
1. There's no NOVA in Tennessee. Think millions of white liberals.
2. Virginia is 20% African American. Tennessee is only 16% African American.
3. Obama has poured about $30 million into Virginia, but spent next to nothing in Tennessee.
4. The Virginia Republican Party is decrepit, and Obama is running on the same ticket as super-popular former Governor Mark Warner.
Not surprising for McCain to be ahead in TN when it went for Bush twice. It is surprising that some polls show obama farther ahead in VA than in OH. VA went for Bush by 9 in 2004, OH was only 51-49. You’d think it would be harder for a Republican to keep OH since it was a much harder state towin last time.
As I recall, into October of 2004 the Dems thought Kerry had a shot in VA too but he didn’t even come close. I just hope this poll is not accurate. It is difficult to see any scenario for McCain to win without this once great state.
Others have said even if McCain takes VA this time it might be the last time. I’m not so sure. If 0bama is president and screws up as badly as we expect him to, VA is one of many states he will lose in 2012.