Posted on 09/25/2008 4:58:32 AM PDT by sunmars
Like, we really believe this..........pollsters have really lost the plot.
I’ll take it!
A prescient warning that should be well-heeded by all here. In '06 we spent an enormous amount of energy trying to convince ourselves that the polls just couldn't be right, that nobody in their right minds would sweep out the 'Pubs and replace them with 'Rats. Well, guess what, that's exactly what happened.
We can't afford to delude ourselves again. We ignore these warnings at our peril. If Obama is leading in a place like NC, it doesn't look good nationally. What to do? Well, hopefully, once he's done in DC (which I hope doesn't take too long), McCain and Palin have to get out in front of this Wall Street crap, and hammer every day on the issue and pin it on O'Bummer and the 'Rats as much as they can, because the 'Rats are out there already pinning it on the 'Pubs. That means engage the public and the 'Rats directly as often as possible. Absolutely saturate the airwaves in key states with ads. Get the ground game geared up as early as possible. And never, ever let the enemy (the media and the 'Rats) frame the debate. Preempt them at every turn. Stay on offense, don't try to play defense, because unlike football, defense doesn't win in politics.
NC isn’t close, one day poll.
Come visit my side of Fairfax - my Huntington neighborhood is a SEA of Obama signs. My neighbor has a stack of Obama/Biden/Moran signs on his porch and has been passing them out to his friends. One dumbass actually got a licence plate with "Obama" worked into the tag number.
We're not putting any signs up because we're concerned that the hate-is-not-a-family-values crowd would burn our house down if McCain wins.
Something I have been saying for days now. Anyone that thinks that things are A-OK in this election should have their heads examined. This poll is frightening.
Probably a lot of armchair FReepers who aren't even getting involved and volunteering in swing states...and then will whine on Nov. 4.
They probably only polled Charlotte and Raleigh Durham. I can believe Obama is leading by 2 in the liberal leaning areas of the state.
I remember the same thing... Scary stuff.
You posted: NC will not go Obama, plain and simple.
***
I agree, even if only due to Bradley effect, Obama won’t win NC— under present conditions.
I think many people who live in conservative areas are following in Pauline Kael's (apocryphal) footsteps. They have no clue how widespread Obama support is, and can't understand how many areas contain very uninformed voters who have NO CLUE about the scary aspects of Obama.
I can't.
Statewide, though...yes.
Doesn't matter what you believe. What matters is when the votes are counted, and NC is far too close for what should be a runaway victory for Sen. McCain.
That's a non sequitur.
State polls do not move in lockstep.
Did you consider that perhaps Obama is close in NC because he's advertising and campaigning there and McCain is not?
In the states where both candidates are campaigning, McCain is holding up very well.
Obama won't win NC unless it's a landslide, and right now McCain is only down 2-3 points nationally. Yes, McCain needs to get that back to parity, but we're still over a month away from the election, and there will be plenty of twists and turns ahead.
The latest NBC/WSJ poll out yesterday has Obambi + 2 over McCain, that’s with Registered Voters, an admitted oversampling of Spanish and an oversample of dems. Peter Hart, who helps run the poll, is a longtime dem operative. I’d guess among Likely To Vote Mac is probably + 1 over the messiah.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NBCPoll_092408.pdf
I don't think you understand our state's politics.
Bush trailed slightly in the polls in 2004 and lost the state slightly. Surely there was fraud in 2004. Why do you think there will be a large difference between polls and actuals in 2008 in favor of Obama?
This poll is probably an outlier, but I’ve noted that the NC polls have been bouncing around a lot the past few months. If Obama does take NC, it’s a blowout win for him.
Do you live in NC?
In what way?
I have family by blood or marriage across the central and eastern parts of the state, and no pickle but Mt. Olive enters my fridge. :-)
Fraud is not linear. As illustrated quite clearly in King County, WA, fraud is often expressed more like a "fudge factor" than a percentage.
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