Posted on 09/16/2008 11:04:11 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
New Jersey is now, according to recent polls, tantalizingly close in the Presidential race. While I do not suggest McCain/Palin expend resources for a NJ victory, this suddenly competitive state could cause more headaches for rejected (by Obama) Harry Reid.
Pulled from the Web:
In [a] poll, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Lautenberg was leading Zimmer by 45 percent to 28 percent. The poll of 589 registered voters was conducted between June 17 and 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Here
25 Jul 08:
The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released yesterday found Lautenberg leading Dick Zimmer by 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters.
Here
12 Aug 08, Quinnipiac:
Democratic incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 48 - 41 percent among likely New Jersey voters, a more select group than registered voters surveyed in previous polls.
19 Aug 08:
Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a 50%-32% lead over Republican Dick Zimmer in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a Zogby International poll released today.
Here
This was just a quick search and there are probably other polls out there. Please post 'em if you've got 'em. Regardless, these are NOT good numbers for an incumbent senator. Even the best of those polls only shows Lautenberg at 50%. If McCain/Palin simply make an appearance with Zimmer, it could boost his fundraising and name recognition substantially and perhaps make this one a nailbiter. At least one poll mentioned that Zimmer, despite serving as a NJ Congressional rep, still suffered (when the poll was conducted) from rather poor name recognition.
Others laughed at me (in a kind way) last week for suggesting Lautenberg could lose. That's fine. Just going on polls, I'd say Zimmer's got a shot at stealing a seat.
Then, after digging through FEC data from June 30th of this year, it appears at that time Lautenberg had $1.3 million in cash on hand, but $3 million in debt. Zimmer had $411K on hand, but only $277K in debt. So Zimmer actually appears to be in better shape as of the most recent FEC data.
Lautenberg has raised $6.2 million total, but spent every penny. And he still can't break 50% in the polls?!? If this race isn't on the GOP's radar screen, it should be.
The GOP in NJ is a large septic system filled with RINO refuse. They had a conservative star in Bret Schundler and they supported MCGREEVEY who they knew was in the closet from the day McGreevey entered politics.
There is no NJ GOP, they are democrats. They don’t want any Republicans in THEIR GOP.
Thank you, Bob. I’ll put you down as “undecided.”
Found out via more reading that $300K of Zimmer’s money is his own. Oops. However, the NRSC and Mitch McConnell had scheduled an official fundraiser for him in late July. Haven’t found any info on that yet.
Encouraging info pulled from the NRSC website:
Zimmer was ranked three times as the most fiscally conservative member of the entire Congress by the National Taxpayers Union and every year he served in Congress he was named a “Taxpayer Hero” by Citizens Against Government Waste. He fought for legislation to use unspent money from lawmakers’ office budgets to reduce the Federal deficit and led by example, returning hundreds of thousands of dollars from his own office account during his six years in Congress.
I have enthusiasms for booting the corpse.
In NJ, you’d need a first-tier Republican to face anything above a fifth-tier rodent to be competitive.
Frank will actually be just 20 days short of 91. I honestly don’t expect him to live to the end of that term.
In NJ, that probably would get him 5 votes. But because he’s been out of office 12 years, nobody cares and nobody remembers. It’s funny, because had he won the Senate seat in 1996 when he was expected to, he’d now be running for his 3rd term...
I’d be amazed if Zimmer voted that high as a Senator. I’d expect more in the 30-40 range these days...
LOL. Just messing with them?
Good stuff, thanks.
:-) Now, now, pithy comments aside, my post was in response to your earlier mention that you expected little difference in how Zimmer or Lautenberg would vote. This supports my earlier statement about Zimmer's fiscal conservatism. And Impy posted their ACU ratings. So Zimmer would definitely be an improvement.
In more reading last night, I discovered that Lautenberg spent $5 million (!!) on his primary battle. And he's still struggling in the polls. His opponent made an issue of his age, and apparently according to general election polls that issue is still resonating.
Yeah, I figured that if Zogby was going to be reporting results of his on-line survey as gospel, he might as well get a data point from a supposed Gore-voting Democrat from New Hampshire that is 100% committed to the War on Terror, cutting taxes, the right to life, and voting for Bush/Cheney. With the way Zogby weights his polls, it would help President Bush a lot more than had I said I was a Republican.
Did you see the thread on Kanjorski’s seat looking pretty vulnerable for the Dems? Now that the base is energized I imagine we’re going to hear of a few more such races.
BTTT
Seven weeks before the election, U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D- N.J.) holds a comfortable lead over former GOP congressman Dick Zimmer, according to two polls re leased yesterday. Lautenberg led Zimmer 48 percent to 39 percent in a poll by Quinnipiac University and 46 percent to 36 percent in the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-11/122171195924890.xml&coll=1
And some key stuff from this same article:
The two polls were remarkably in sync in one respect: Lautenberg got identical ratings -- 43 percent "favorable" -- in both. Both polls found Zimmer is largely unknown. Among likely vot ers, two-thirds told Quinnipiac and 53 percent told Monmouth/ Gannett they knew too little about Zimmer to form an opinion of him.
Plenty of room there for the GOP to introduce Zimmer to the voters of NJ... before the Dems/media do it for them.
It’s best for the Dems to simply ignore Zimmer at this point, as vilifying him would only raise his profile. With 6 challengers, Lautenberg could win in the high 40s with the opposition splitting the remaining vote. I’ll be shocked if Zimmer makes it to above 45%. More likely it’ll be around 40%. I still think Laut will end up with around 55% or so.
If nothing changes, I’d tend to agree. My point here, repeatedly, is that the incumbent cannot break 50% in the polls. He has an approval rating in the low 40s, and he’s spent $6 million -$5 million during his primary, where his opponent continually hammered him on his age. Zimmer could definitely make this a race if he had the resources. Will he get them? I dunno.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.