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New Poll shows no convention bounce for Obama
CNN.com ^ | 8/31/08 | Paul Steinhauser and Alan Silverleib

Posted on 08/31/2008 9:05:33 PM PDT by LdSentinal

ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) -- On the eve of the Republican convention, a new national poll suggests the race for the White House remains even.

Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain are in a virtual tie, according to the latest poll.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, with the statistical margin of error.

The survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, after both the conclusion of the Democratic convention and Sen. John McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

A previous CNN poll, taken just one week earlier, suggested the race between McCain, R-Arizona, and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, was tied at 47 percent each.

"The convention and particularly Obama's speech seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces assuming that either one created a bounce at all," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: deadcatbounce; electionpresident; mccain; palin; poll
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To: infowarrior

“I’ve been loving life since Team McCain started landing the body blows.”

When Fred Thompson dropped out I was right here on FR saying that “a McCain for President Yard sign will never cast its shadow on my front lawn”, and I would Never put a McCain bumper sticker on the car. Stopping short of saying I would never vote for him.

Well let me tell you, with his perfect performance at the Saddelback forum, his brilliant new style of ads, and now picking Sarah Palin as the VP, - I AM SO PUMPED I CAN’T BE CONTAINED.

Within minutes of the VP announcement I began searching websites to purchase bumper stickers, yard signs, T-shirts, anything. Heck right now I could break a taboo of mine and tattoo McCain/Palin 08 on my chest.


81 posted on 08/31/2008 11:29:12 PM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: infowarrior
The momentum is going to McCain, and I don't see anything on the horizon to reverse it, do you?

You never know what might happen, but the one glaring neg over the horizon is the fact that Obama has a pile of money and isn't bound by the same campaign finance rules as McCain.

McCain is going to have to use his resources well, while Obama can afford to squander a little. On the plus side, Obama has a tendency to spend his resources foolishly while McCain seems to get pretty good bang for his buck.

Plus, if it's close, they can cheat.
82 posted on 08/31/2008 11:32:43 PM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (No attack on Sarah Palin ever fed a hungry child.)
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To: NavyCanDo
I'll tell you the truth NavyCanDo, I started watching this race, as a mostly disinterested observer, but, like you, I've come to the conclusion that, as much as I really fear to put much trust in him, he has gone to great lengths to earn my vote, so he's earned it. I'll vote for him, but were I to be totally honest, I would actually be voting for Palin...

the infowarrior

83 posted on 08/31/2008 11:35:44 PM PDT by infowarrior
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To: LdSentinal

How about a convention dip? Is there such thing as a convention dip?


84 posted on 08/31/2008 11:42:00 PM PDT by Jess Kitting
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To: Jess Kitting
Democratic Convention dip?


85 posted on 08/31/2008 11:46:05 PM PDT by Jess Kitting
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To: Question Liberal Authority
Plus, if it's close, they can cheat.

Many of the dynamics of this particular campaign season are completely different from the past. I suspect we're going to find that it isn't going to be so close that cheating will be a viable tactic for them.

On the money side, all the money in the world isn't going to matter much if they get no opening to use it. They are off-balance, off-message, and on defense. Schmidt is too good an operative to not be able to keep them that way. Furthermore, because its been death of a thousand cuts, where do they focus their money advantage? Every one of those cuts, while not immediately fatal, caused serious damage, and can be re-worked again, and again, as necessary to finish him off.

Team Obama, is basically done, and they know it. They are flailing around, like a punch-drunk palooka, and on the ropes. Only a matter of time, barring the totally unforeseen...

the infowarrior

86 posted on 08/31/2008 11:46:46 PM PDT by infowarrior
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To: LdSentinal

87 posted on 09/01/2008 12:11:43 AM PDT by matt1234
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To: Question Liberal Authority
It wasn't until I read the People Magazine article that everything fell into place. When McCain said he picked Palin because she is a reformer who fought special interests, the whole Maverick thing suddenly made sense. McCain isn't just someone who wants to be president. He wants to reform government. And he wants to have an impact even after he's gone. It's not just some words he's saying to get elected. It's his reason for living.

I have been having similar feelings lately. I would never have selected him for the Republican candidate. But now that I am getting to know him, seeing his actions in the campaign, his selection of Palin, and his speech when he announced her, I feel I understand what is moving him more, and has been moving him for years.

He is not infallible, he wanted Lieberman, and even though it would have fit his goal of bipartisanship, that would have been a disaster. But I can also say that I am growing to trust him far more than I did only a few weeks ago. I think instead of being the last job on his resume, he is sincerely wanting to reform government and bring things back toward a center rather than than constant warfare. At the end of his presidency, I think we will look back at the events that occured in the world during the next four years, remember all of the candidates who could have been president, and we will conclude that McCain was indeed the right man for the time.

88 posted on 09/01/2008 12:52:58 AM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: LdSentinal

Past demorats enjoyed a large convention bounce, such like Klinton, who got 15 points. Obama’s in trouble.


89 posted on 09/01/2008 12:56:25 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: vamoose

I absolutely despise those Luntz undecided voter panels. I’ve occasionally been undecided about how to vote in a particular race, but I would never go on national TV and wallow in my angst before the entire nation.

These people on these panels are portrayed as if they’re exceptionally thoughtful voters, non-ideologues who are willing to entertain both sides of an issue and then make an intellectual judgment. But that’s not the impression I get from them at all. Most of them strike me as either stupid or dependent. They rattle off all the media platitudes about the need for more “bipartisanship” and less “divisive rhetoric”. The ideal candidate for these people was Bill Clinton, who bit his lip, teared up, and felt their pain.

I feel ashamed to be a part of the American political process when I see a spectacle like the Luntz panels. “Okay, dear, after hearing Biden talk about his sweet old mama back in Scranton, have you developed a warm feeling in your heart for the Democratic ticket, or do you still need more time to think about it?”


90 posted on 09/01/2008 1:14:12 AM PDT by puroresu (Enjoy ASIAN CINEMA? See my Freeper page for recommendations (updated!).)
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To: LdSentinal
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, with the statistical margin of error.

Considering the massive Obama ass-kissing Olympics by the media during the last two months this is truly astounding.

91 posted on 09/01/2008 1:17:19 AM PDT by Larry381 (A community in Chicago is missing an Indonesian organizer from Kenya)
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To: STARWISE

That’s great. I hope we can pull ahead and stay there.
This monster has GOT to be stopped.


92 posted on 09/01/2008 1:28:28 AM PDT by patriot08
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To: icwhatudo

so much for “equal under the law”.


93 posted on 09/01/2008 1:47:58 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Larry381

which puts obama back at square one “why can’t obama seal the deal?”

Perhaps America is not so oprahfied after all.

Defeat for Obama is a defeat for Oprah.


94 posted on 09/01/2008 1:50:49 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: LdSentinal

“equal and opposite bounces?”

what a load of doublespeak.

ALL candidates get a bounce, even Dole had a bounce.

RCP is reporting the new cnn pole as +1 obama

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 08/18 - 08/31 — 47.6 44.2 Obama +3.4
CNN 08/29 - 08/31 927 RV 49 48 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 08/28 - 08/30 2730 RV 48 42 Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking 08/28 - 08/30 3000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Hotline/FD 08/18 - 08/24 1022 RV 44 40 Obama +4
USA Today/Gallup 08/21 - 08/23 765 LV 48 45 Obama +3


95 posted on 09/01/2008 1:56:59 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Stentor

I,I,I,I,I don’t usually uh, particularly remember halftime shows anyway.


96 posted on 09/01/2008 2:05:39 AM PDT by Disciplinemisanthropy (...fantasy hockey, anyone?)
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To: llandres

In some ways the R convention delay will just continue the McPalin build up....everyone will be digging to find out more about her and that will be a good thing.


97 posted on 09/01/2008 4:46:41 AM PDT by iopscusa (El Vaquero. (SC Lowcountry Cowboy))
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To: RobRoy

Well as I said to a friend, the Bradley Effect only matters in PA, WI, FL or Michigan.

It means nothing in Alabama, South Carolina, etc. where Obama has no chance in winning.

So considering that, do you think that will have an impact?

And oh I hope infowarrior is right.


98 posted on 09/01/2008 5:26:05 AM PDT by romanesq
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To: romanesq

HEh, heh, don’t forget CA!

After all, that’s where Bradley lost. ;)


99 posted on 09/01/2008 7:41:11 AM PDT by RobRoy (This is comical)
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To: LdSentinal

It will be interesting to see how the news of Palin’s daughter affects upcoming polls.


100 posted on 09/01/2008 11:07:21 AM PDT by Signalman
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