I believe that is correct. I was just talking to some bona fide independent PA voters this past weekend. They are voting McCain because of Obama. Had Hillary been the nominee, they'd be voting for Hillary because of their strong disapproval of GWB. But McCain has been able to convince these voters he is not the same as GWB, and hence, he's going to get their votes, and I believe, win PA, regardless of his veep pick.
The PA voters BHO loses are rural blue-collar Democrats—sportsmen and labor-types. He doesn’t lose all or even most of them, but he loses enough of them.
It’s a combination of race, guns and abortion.