Posted on 08/17/2008 5:59:04 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
A July 27 Washington Post analysis pointed out the actual numbers involved in a Barack Obama victory in some of the Southern states. These numbers make it very clear that it is all but impossible. We will hear over and over about how Obama will be competitive in some Southern states and Virginia will always be mentioned. Nevertheless, here’s the truth: In order to win Virginia he has to A) hold ALL the White votes John Kerry got in Virginia. THIS ALONE IS A GAME ENDER, but there’s more;
B) He has to increase the Black turn out by 30%
AND
C) He has to get 95% of the Black vote.
While A is already is a serious threat to Obama’s plan, B and C present equally daunting and dangerous ground to build a dream of victory on.
Anyone who has worked in a campaign knows that Get Out The Vote (GOTV) is time and money consuming and that the very best campaigns can only increase a demographic group’s turnout by about 4 to 6 %. For Obama to do 30%, his campaign would HAVE to spend every dime it had allotted to Virginia on GOTV. That means No TV and or Radio spots except on eh, “urban stations.” That means NO door- to- door canvassing except in inner cities. That means No outreach to Whites whatsoever. There would be no time, no money and certainly no one to spare. It also means only Black door- to- door volunteers for obvious reasons. Getting his 95% is nowhere near a given. An August 4 Zogby poll revealed that Mr. Obama has “lost some support among African Americans....” Mr. Zogby's decision not to release the actual numbers of Mr. Obama's loss of Black support tells me it was a serious fall. Zogby is a Democrat himself. So unless Obama was sitting on 100% of the Black vote, which is simply not possible, losing ANY support among African Americans puts him below 95%.
Nevertheless, however difficult a victory for Obama in Virginia appears to be, winning in other Southern states is still more difficult, substantially more difficult. In North Carolina Obama’s A and C items are the same, but in the Tar Heel State he has to increase the Black turnout by 36%.
In Georgia, which is the other Southern state the delusional media is trying to sell as a Democratic presidential pickup, the picture is fairly glum as well. In the Peach State Obama would have to arrange a Black turnout increase of 64% to win, provided he can hold all of John Kerry’s White vote.
The effect all of Obama’s emphasis on wooing a larger and larger Black turnout and an unprecedented vote percentage would have on his efforts to bring White males back to the Democrats is hard to determine. What is clear is that it would hurt Obama rather than help him. Since 1964 no Democrat presidential candidate has won the White male vote. That this streak will continue this year is a given. The question is how poorly Obama will do and how much he will hurt down ballot Democrats.
Starting with the middle of September the media will crank up its efforts to make America believe Obama will win. They will use push polls to try to fool voters into thinking an Obama victory is coming. It’s not. Don’t buy it. The numbers tell the story.
“The Messiah in Training” isn’t going to win.
Hillary will use the convention to stomp his inexperienced butt into the ground. She will then emerge fresh to race after the POTUS title after her 3 month hiatus from campaigning.
The RNC would be wise to use some of the videos out there of Obama saying he supports gay marriage, gays in the military, and late term abortion/against infants born alive laws and run them in flyover country. Tell America how radical he really is.
You are seriously advertising your website here.
That’s the sixth or seventh “reply” I’ve seen you make on different threads here today.
You’re obviously not participating in the discussions, judging by your responses. You also seem to post early on each thread, then disappear.
What gives?
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