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Posted on 08/01/2008 3:08:18 PM PDT by GOPGuide
In an election for President in Missouri today, 08/01/08, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KCTV-TV Kansas City and KSDK-TV St. Louis. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released ten weeks ago, when Hillary Clinton was still in the race for the Democratic nomination, McCain is up a statistically insignificant one point; Obama is down a statistically insignificant one point. Among men, McCain today leads by 12. Among women, Obama leads by 3 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 19 points. Among voters younger than Obama, the contest is tied. McCain holds 87% of Republican voters; Obama holds 83% of Democrats. Independents break 5:3 for McCain. McCain leads by 28 points in southeastern Missouri, by 23 in southwestern Missouri, and by 21 in the northern portion of the state. Obama leads by 13 in the St. Louis area. The two tie in the Kansas City area.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,050 Missouri adults 07/29/08 through 07/31/08. Of the adults, 1,884 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,459 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Missouri has 11 Electoral College votes. George Bush carried Missouri by 7 points in 2004 and by 3 points in 2000.
5% is not slight.
Especially in a swing state in what SHOULD be a huge Democrat lead.
SHOULD be a huge Democrat lead.
ie
should be a huge Democrat year.
Ping
This is good.
Help me on this one please. Obama down 56-44 w/men and up 51.5-48.5 w/women. How is this a 15 point gender gap. Isn't it a 7 point gender gap. Educate me please.
+12 with men, -3.5 with women (McCain vs. Obama). I make the difference as 15.5. You subtract to compare differences, and +12 -(-3.5) = 15.5.
I understand how they get the 15 but don’t ya meet in the middle?
How and why would you want to do that? I think it makes sense to compare the differences among the two groups. I don't know what you mean by the middle.
While I guess the term "gender gap" is right, if McCain led among men by 12 and he also lead among women by 2 the "gender gap" is 10 but it seems kinda misleading.
This is good news, no doubt about it.
Doing some not-so quick math, I currently have McCain’s support at a solid 200 electoral votes. I have him winning the following states:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).
That total does not include Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, or New Hampshire. Those are the states McCain needs to put himself over the top. Curiously, if he wins all of them, he would win the same exact states Bush won in 2000. He is in solid shape at this point.
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When Obama has a 5% lead it’s solid. When it’s McCain, it’s slight.
Been like this for months.
Put 'em all together and what'a ya get? Obama loses the election!
Obambi is slightly ahead right now, but that lead is very, very precarious. McCain is starting to look like he may go ahead and win this thing.
McCain should take Missouri by 8 to 10% in November.
You might as well throw these states in your electoral count because Obama is not taking any of these.
Go McCain.
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