Without the Evangelical, Catholic and Conservative base of the party, McCain simply doesn't have a chance.
I would like to think your estimation of those categories is closer to the truth than my own estimations.
What I will say, is that with the close elections we have had over the last two general elections, McCain can’t afford to lose one single vote from the base.
In that, you and I are on the same page I’m sure, and I agree John McCain will never be president.