Candidates don’t “drop out”.
They run out of money. When that happens they have tough decisions to make. In this one, it would be McCain’s Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill as the definitive measure of his plans in office. Nothing more. Nothing less.
McCain dropping out and endorsing Thompson does not get money into Thompson’s hands soon enough for media buys in California and Illinois, which is where one must stop Guilliani. Texas votes well into March. Someone made a serious error there.
Guilliani could emerge from California, NY and Illinois on Super Tuesday as the presumptive nominee unless he is stopped — and specifically in those particular states.
Florida, as well. Extremely important early state.
I was under the impression that, Ahnuld aside, the California GOP is actually pretty conservative (think Tom McClintock). The problem with CA is that the GOP is tiny compared to the preponderance of Dims and Dim influence from LA and SF? NY GOP is liberal, but what about the Illinois state party? IL gave us Henry Hyde and a host of good Reps, IIRC. Some RINOs, but not as many as we'd expect from a Northeastern State, right? What's important in these primaries is not the political leaning of the State as a whole, but of the State GOP organisation. Like in IA - the State as a whole is moderate(which is why it usually goes slightly Dim, and Bush on slightly won it in 2004), but the State GOP is heavily tilted towards the SoCon Right, hence Huckabee was handed a victory which, if the whole State were voting, he would not have come anywhere receiving.