Hunter Duncan squandered 97% of his contract value at Intrade.
***Duncan has gone down 2.5 points over his premium value, and Thompson has squandered more than 10X that.
His chances of winning are shown at .1 because there’s no lower number on the Intrade scale.
***Thompson is trading 2nd highest at Intrade for the Dropout contract in January, behind Edwards. For February, he’s the most likely to drop out, at 85% likelihood. Last I heard, Hunter got one delegate and Thompson got 2 from Wyoming. Hunter’s contract prices are undervalued, and since he’s polling in the 3-4% range, if his contracts go up to 4$ it would be a 40X return on investment. In order to match that, Fred’s nomination contract would need to go all the way to 100.
According to Intrade, it’s twice as likely that Newt Gingrich will get the GOP nomination, and four times as likely that Condie Rice will get it.
***And neither of those “candidates” has any delegates right now. That makes Hunter a bargain.
Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the truest conservative, Hunter.
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The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
You were the one lecturing about how percentage was more important. I agree. It is.
Hunter Duncan is down 97%.
Hunter Duncan does not even have a dropout contract, because no one would be stupid enough to bicker over the difference between 99.9 and 99.8 points of value.
There's no reason it would. It doesn't work that way.
The contract value is worth $1 if he wins, not one penny for each percent he's polling.
You should stop posting about these things if you are so badly informed.