Threat Matrix: December 2007

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[nwctwx]

Calculating the Risks in Pakistan

A small group of U.S. military experts and intelligence officials convened in Washington for a classified war game last year, exploring strategies for securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if the country's political institutions and military safeguards began to fall apart.

The secret exercise — conducted without official sponsorship from any government agency, apparently due to the sensitivity of its subject — was one of several such games the U.S. government has conducted in recent years examining various options and scenarios for Pakistan's nuclear weapons: How many troops might be required for a military intervention in Pakistan? Could Pakistani nuclear bunkers be isolated by saturating the surrounding areas with tens of thousands of high-powered mines, dropped from the air and packed with anti-tank and anti-personnel munitions? Or might such a move only worsen the security of Pakistan's arsenal?
Full story...

	Musharraf: U.S. Shares Blame for Pakistan and Afghanistan
	Bin Laden's Message to the Europeans
	Messages from bin Laden Since 9-11

Threat Matrix:
December 2007

November 2007

Threat Matrix Index

Theat Matrix Handbook

Theat Matrix 'BOLO'

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Preparedness

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1944901/posts

#

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3487632,00.html

“IAF missile strike kills senior Islamic Jihad member”

SNIPPET: “Mohammad Abu Murshud, head of organization’s armed wing in central Strip, killed by missile launched from Israeli aircraft. At least eight Hamas, Islamic Jihad members killed in IDF strikes throughout the day”

Ali Waked
Published: 12.27.07, 22:35 / Israel News

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “A series of attacks launched by the IDF in Gaza Thursday has claimed the lives of at least eight militants, including Mohammad Abu Murshud, head of Islamic Jihad’s armed wing in the central Gaza Strip.

According to Palestinian sources, Murshud was killed when the car he was traveling in north of al-Mugarka (near the former Israeli settlement of Netzarim) was struck by a missile fired by Israeli aircraft. Two other Jihad members were killed and a number of others were injured in the attack, which was the IDF’s third of the evening.

Five Palestinians were killed in two attacks in Gaza earlier in the day: Two Hamas members and two Islamic Jihad gunmen were shot dead by Israeli soldiers operating south of Khan Younis in the southern Strip, while two more Jihad gunmen were killed near the al-Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza.”

[Velveeta]

EXCLUSIVE: New developments in USF students explosives investigation

Tampa, Florida - For the third time in months, the University of South Florida is taking a hit for housing three students with alleged terrorist ties.....
http://www.tampabays10.com/news/local/article.aspx?storyid=70629

[Cindy]

ADDING to post no. 1108:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/12/20071227-3.html

#

Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/12/20071227.html

For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
December 27, 2007

President and Mrs. Bush Extend Condolences Regarding Assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Condemn Violence
Prairie Chapel Ranch
Crawford, Texas

White House News

9:55 A.M. CST

THE PRESIDENT: Laura and I extend our deepest condolences to the family of Benazir Bhutto, to her friends, to her supporters. We send our condolences to the families of the others who were killed in today’s violence. And we send our condolences to all the people of Pakistan on this tragic occasion.

The United States strongly condemns this cowardly act by murderous extremists who are trying to undermine Pakistan’s democracy. Those who committed this crime must be brought to justice. Mrs. Bhutto served her nation twice as Prime Minister and she knew that her return to Pakistan earlier this year put her life at risk. Yet she refused to allow assassins to dictate the course of her country.

We stand with the people of Pakistan in their struggle against the forces of terror and extremism. We urge them to honor Benazir Bhutto’s memory by continuing with the democratic process for which she so bravely gave her life.

END 9:57 A.M. CST

[Velveeta]

Adding to #1117

Forthcoming Speech from the Head of Al-Qaeda, Usama bin Laden: “The Way to Contain the Conspiracies”
By SITE Intelligence Group
December 27, 2007

SITE Intelligence Group has learned that a new message is forthcoming from Usama bin Laden, the head of Al-Qaeda, addressing Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq. The message is produced by As-Sahab, the multimedia arm of Al-Qaeda, and is titled, “The Way to Contain the Conspiracies”. The announcement of this impending released was posted to jihadist forums today, Thursday, December 27, 2007, and gave the duration of the tape as 56 minutes and 10 seconds. It also stated: “May Allah demean the Front of Shame and Dinar, and may the Merciful One reveal the confusion of Al-Jazeera, the station of the infidels.”

http://siteinstitute.org/bin/articles.cgi?ID=publications336407&Category=publications&Subcategory=0

and

http://www.lauramansfield.com/subscribers/

[Cindy]

Thank you Velveeta.

[MamaDearest]

About ten years late.

Well stated and true!

1 website to carry new Bin Laden tape on Iraq

An Islamist Web site said on Friday it would carry a new recording from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden about "foiling plots" in Iraq.

The Web site said the 56-minute recording would also be about the Islamic State in Iraq, an al Qaeda-linked group in the country.

It did not say when the video or audio recording, produced by al Qaeda's media arm As-Sahab and entitled "The Path to Foiling Plots in Iraq", would be posted.

Al Qaeda messages have been often released within three days of their announcement on Web sides.

"May God expose the cover-up by Al Jazeera, the channel of the infidels," said the Web site, which is often used to issue messages from al Qaeda.

[Velveeta]

What a Coincidence! New Osama bin Laden Tape Coming Soon (updated)
By Andrew Cochran

Laura Mansfield, Evan Kohlmann, and Rita Katz’s SITE Institute report that Islamist websites are announcing a new OBL tape, discussing Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq, titled “The Way to Contain the Conferences.” This comes on the day of the Bhutto assassination and also in the wake of the removal of several key ISI and Al Qaeda-in-Iraq operatives recently. Ahmed Turki Abbas, self-proclaimed “defense minister” of Islamic State of Iraq, was captured by the Iraqi Army in Baghdad. Abu Abdullah, a.k.a. Muhammad Sulayman Shunaythir al-Zubai and an experienced bombmaker and attack leader, was killed by U.S. forces on November 8. An unnamed “high-value” Al Qaeda target linked to suicide bomb attacks, including the car bombing of the Australian Embassy in Baghdad, was killed by missiles fired by a U.S.-piloted helicopter. I will assume that the timing of this tape has more to do with events there and not in Pakistan.

The last OBL tape was released in late November. Evan Kohlmann posted a link to the entire transcript, while Walid Phares posted his analysis.

UPDATE: A Reuters report has the tape titled, “The Path to Foiling Plots in Iraq,” and quotes OBL criticizing Al Jazeera for allegedly misrepresenting his October tape: “May God expose the cover-up by Al Jazeera, the channel of the infidels.” Recall that many commentators, including Walid Phares (see his post on that tape), interpreted OBL’s criticism of ISI as a defeatist message.

I will update this post as more becomes available.

http://counterterrorismblog.org/2007/12/what_a_coincidence_new_osama_b.php

(hotlinks within article at site)

trackback: http://counterterrorismblog.org/mt/pings.cgi/4725

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=arson

#

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1944993/posts

#

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071228/ts_nm/bush_fire_dc

“Former Texas home of Bushes burned by arsonist”
25 minutes ago

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “HOUSTON (Reuters) - A home where President George W. Bush lived as a young boy with his parents in Odessa, Texas, and that is now part of a presidential museum there was damaged on Thursday by a fire that investigators blamed on arson.

“I can tell you it has been determined that it was intentionally set, but I cannot discuss anything about evidence or possible suspects because this is an ongoing criminal investigation,” said city of Odessa spokeswoman Andrea Goodson.”

[Velveeta]

Former Texas home of Bushes burned by arsonist
Posted on 12/27/2007 8:31:17 PM CST by Sub-Driver

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1944993/posts

[Cindy]

ADDING to post no. 1108:

http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_930.html

Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520

This information is current as of today, Thu Dec 27 2007 18:47:59 GMT-0800 (PST).

PAKISTAN

September 21, 2007

[Cindy]

Note: The following text is a quote:

https://www.osac.gov/Reports/report.cfm?contentID=77525

YOU ARE HERE: Home > Reports > Consular Affairs Bulletins > Report
Warden Message: Former Pakistan PM Assassination, Potential Demonstrations and Violence
CONSULAR AFFAIRS BULLETINS
South / Central Asia - Pakistan
27 Dec 2007

Printer Friendly Email Article
RELATED REPORTS
Today
BENAZIR BHUTTO ASSASSINATED
18 Dec 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: PAKISTAN HOLIDAY SAFETY AND ELECTIONS
3 Nov 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: PAKISTAN STATE OF EMERGENCY
23 Oct 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: DEMONSTRATION NEAR RADIO PAKISTAN, ISLAMABAD
19 Oct 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: BOMBINGS IN KARACHI
U.S. Embassy Islamabad released the following Warden Message on December 27, 2007:

This warden message is being issued to alert Americans to safety concerns due to potential demonstrations and disruptions following the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. All Americans are asked to keep a low profile and to avoid large gatherings during any declared mourning period, and to adjust their activities according to further developments. The potential for sporadic violence and demonstrations is much higher during the period of mourning for former Prime Minister Bhutto, and Americans are asked to avoid funeral processions and large public gatherings.

As per our long-standing guidance, we would like to remind the American-citizen community of the need to stay alert, to be aware of your surroundings, to reduce travel to a minimum, and to act self-defensively at all times. American citizens should vary their routes and times, avoid areas where Westerners are known to congregate, and maintain a low profile. Threats, protests, and demonstrations may occur throughout Pakistan without prior notice or warning, and on occasion have turned violent or been the target of violence. We therefore recommend that American citizens avoid all demonstrations, protests and large gatherings.

For the latest security information, Americans traveling abroad should regularly monitor the Department’s Internet web site at http://travel.state.gov where the Worldwide Caution Public Announcement http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_1161.html and the Pakistan Consular Information Sheet http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_992.html and Travel Warning can be found. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the United States and Canada, or, for callers outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).

Contact information follows for all four posts in Pakistan:

The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad is located at Diplomatic Enclave, Ramna 5; telephone (92-51) 208-0000; Consular Section telephone (92-51) 208-2700; fax (92-51) 282-2632, website http://islamabad.usembassy.gov

The U.S. Consulate General in Karachi, located at 8 Abdullah Haroon Road, has closed its public operations indefinitely due to security concerns. U.S. citizens requiring emergency assistance should call the consular section in Karachi. Their telephone is (92-21) 520-4200 (after hours: 92-21-520-4400; fax 92-21-568-0496, website http://karachi.usconsulate.gov

The U.S. Consulate in Lahore is located at 50- Sharah-E-Abdul Hameed Bin Badees, (Old Empress Road) near Shimla Hill Rotary, telephone (92-42) 603-4000 or 603-4250, fax (92-42) 603-4200, website http://lahore.usconsulate.gov; Email ddress: acslahore@state.gov

The U.S. Consulate in Peshawar is located at 11 Hospital Road, Cantonment, Peshawar; telephone (92-91) 526-8800; fax (92-91) 527-6712, website
http://peshawar.usconsulate.gov

[Cindy]

Note: The following text is a quote:

https://www.osac.gov/Reports/report.cfm?contentID=77523

YOU ARE HERE: Home > Reports > Consular Affairs Bulletins > Report
Warden Message: Dhaka Holiday Security Reminder, Vigilance Advised
CONSULAR AFFAIRS BULLETINS
South / Central Asia - Bangladesh
27 Dec 2007

Printer Friendly Email Article
RELATED REPORTS
30 Nov 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: BANGLADESH CAUTIONS INCREASED CRIME IN CYCLONE-AFFECTED REGIONS
26 Nov 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: BRIDGES WEAKENED BY CYCLONE
15 Nov 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: TROPICAL CYLCONE SIDR
14 Nov 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: CYCLONE SIDR APPROACHING BANGLADESH
13 Nov 2007
WARDEN MESSAGE: INDIA:CYCLONE SIDR HEADED NORTH, CAUTION ADVISED
U.S. Embassy Dhaka issued the following Warden Message on December 27:

The Government of Bangladesh has further increased its security presence within the Diplomatic Enclave and throughout Dhaka in the past few days. In light of this measure, the U.S. Embassy has reviewed its security posture and would like to remind all American citizens to maintain a low profile during the holidays and to always be aware of your surroundings, especially in venues where large crowds may gather (hotels, restaurants, churches, mosques, shopping centers, etc). Please be sure to keep your charged cell phone with you at all times and call the police if you observe anything suspicious.

The U.S. Embassy in Dhaka can be reached at (880-2) 885-5500 during regular hours and for after-hours emergencies. Our website address is http://www.dhaka.usembassy.gov. For the latest security information, Americans living and traveling abroad should regularly monitor the Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs Internet web site at http://www.travel.state.gov/, where the current Worldwide Caution Public Announcement, Bangladesh Public Announcement, Bangladesh Consular Information Sheet and other Public Announcements and Travel Warnings can be found. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the U.S. and Canada; or, for callers outside the U.S. and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 am to 8:00 p.m., Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=arson

Speaking of arson, vandalism, etc...

Note: The following post is a quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/1939553/posts

Woodland Church Hit By Vandals Again
CBS-13 Sacramento ^ | 12/14/7 | Dennis Shanahan
Posted on 12/14/2007 10:40:38 AM PST by SmithL

Two weeks ago, somebody broke into a Woodland church and stole donation money out of a safe. Last night vandals returned and did even more damage, including spray painting statues.

Holy Rosary Catholic Church has stood at the corner of Walnut and Court Streets for more than a half century. Church volunteers spent today doing what they could to remove black spray paint from statues of Mary Magdalene, Mary the Mother of Jesus, and Jesus on the cross. One of the helpers just happened to be driving by, saw the damage, and asked for a washcloth.

“It’s just very, there are no words. It’s just really, really disrespectful and painful,” said the volunteer.

Father Terry Fulton is the church pastor.

“Wow, it’s such a sacreligious thing. I just don’t know why anybody would do it,” said Father Fulton.

Police are looking at this as much more than a simple case of vandalism.

Whoever did do it also sprayed the word “murder” on the side of the church, and it gets even worse. Somebody also tried to set the outside of the sanctuary on fire. The sound was enough to wake up Father Fulton just after four in the morning, who put out the flames himself with a garden hose.

Church members say they’ll let the law do its job while they focus on moving forward. Late this afternoon, they received some professional help when Graffiti Removal Services, volunteered to make sure every trace of paint comes off. All of this is comforting to a pastor trying to make sense of the unthinkable

(Excerpt) Read more at cbs13.com ...

[Velveeta]

Musharraf’s younger brother worries in Chicago
http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/715228,brother122707.article

[Cindy]

1 more link:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945013/posts

“Chicago’s Pakistani Community Mourns Bhutto”
CBS 2 CHICAGO ^ | 27 DECEMBER 2007 | AP
Posted on 12/27/2007 7:38:42 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist
Former Prime Minister Assassinated During Political Rally CHICAGO (CBS)

[Velveeta]

Thank, Cindy.

“In the Pakistani business strip along Devon Avenue on the Far North Side, shock and sadness overshadowed commerce Thursday.”

I’m very familiar with the area.

[Cindy]

You’re welcome.

Very sad situation (in Pakistan).

[Cindy]

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/019351.php
(AP)

December 28, 2007
“Three Tajik jihadists sentenced to prison terms for preparing attacks”

[texpat72]

This link has video of Bush’s former home.

http://www.kwes.com/

[texpat72]

Correction: President Bush’s former home.