Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[Reagan Man]

You want polling data. Okay. Fred is still ahead of Mitt Boy in the Real Clear Politics combined poll. He's also ahead of Mitt Boy in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll. In fact, in ALL of the national polls Fred is ahead of Romney. In the latest Gallup poll, Fred is ahead of Romney. And then there is this tasty tidbit from the latest Gallup Poll:

Among the roughly 6 in 10 Republicans in the current poll who say they are extremely likely to vote in their state’s 2008 presidential primary or caucus, Giuliani (25%) and Thompson (21%) are essentially tied. McCain (13%), Romney (12%), and Huckabee (12%) tie for third among this group.

LINK

I know Mitt Boy leads in Iowa and NH. 40 days is a long time. Huckabee's right on Mitt's heels. Mitt's millions aren't serving him well.

[Eastbound]

Folks just aren't used to his style of campaigning. Flash? Pizzaz? Bells and whistles? May as well look elsewhere if you're looking for lightning to flash and the thunder to roll every time he opens his mouth. There are plenty of Sound Bite Slickers out there, so take your pick.

I think Fred has great patience to not start acting like a hot-shot just for some good reviews. Fred gives you time to think things over when he says something. Speak softly, but forget the big schtick seems to be his style. I kind of like it.

[flaglady47]

P.S., I might add, I have no problem with Fred. If he ends up being the Pub candidate for Prez, I will gladly support him, as I would Romney or Duncan Hunter (longshot though that may be). I’d also support Tancredo, Guiliani if I had too (at gunpoint). The only ones I would not support would be Ron Paul because he’s nutz, and John McCain as he is a loose cannon and has turned on his party once too often (McCain-Feingold, his stance on torture (lot of good it did him), his amnesty for illegals bill, and other occasions when he shafted his own kind.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Both men left their state parties in shambles. Huckster had a flourishing and expanding state GOP that was on its way from 1/3rd of the legislature and 1/2 of the federal delegation and left it with “1” federal member, a shrinking percent of the legislature and zero statewide officeholders, essentially the weakest point it has been in the past 35 years. The similarities between the two is uncanny. Of course, the AR GOP can still rise again and will still vote GOP next year for President. But Romney drove the stake through the heart of what was left of the MA GOP. His experience in whatever else doesn’t matter, because the ultimate judge is what he did AS an elected official and party leader. He literally killed it, and it will take DECADES to restore the damage he and Weld did to it, if not longer. If Romney had gotten elected Governor of Utah, he’d have turned THAT state Democrat in short order. Scary as hell.

[fieldmarshaldj]

G’night.

[Eastbound]

"McCain-Feingold . . . "

That bothers me. I wonder what possessed Fred to get involved in that, other than his friendship with McCain. I wonder where he stands on that today? I'd like to know.

[Kevmo]

Every time I see one of these threads I KNOW FRed is very much alive. Otherwise all these people would not still be spending so much time and effort trying to kill him off.
***That’s how I feel about Duncan Hunter threads.

.

.

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

[fieldmarshaldj]

Reagan was not a flip-flopping liberal who told his audiences whatever they wanted to hear to suit the occasion. Romney is a fraud and a very dangerous man. He gets his way if he gets elected President and he will shrink the GOP to 1/3rd of Congress by 2012, a dozen Governorships, and even fewer state legislatures. He'll then "choose" not to run for President again and hand the office off... to Barack Obama. Think it won't happen ? Say hello to the Black Marxist rodent Romney handed his office over to in Boston... DeVal Patrick.

He'd have never gotten elected Governor of MA without Romney's help.

[flaglady47]

“I know Mitt Boy leads in Iowa and NH. 40 days is a long time. Huckabee’s right on Mitt’s heels. Mitt’s millions aren’t serving him well.”

We’ll see. Huckabee is the MSM’s candidate du jour. He will fizzle out the more people find out about his ethical problems and his stands on issues like tuition for illegals and amnesty inclinations for illegal aliens. As to Mitt not doing as well in the national polls, that is to be expected, as he is not as well known nationally as Guiliani is because of 9/11 and Fred is because of his acting career on Law and Order. But, all still have to get past the primaries in order to fulfill those national polls. And whoever wins the primaries will then become well known in short order to the American people. Very well known.

That’s why Mitt is attempting to frontload the primary states, in order to build momentum to win more of them. He’ll worry about national recognition once he wins the primaries, that is, if he does. Same for all the primary candidates. First things first. Got to win those primaries to get to the nationals, right?

[fabian]

how did Romney help him get elected?

[fieldmarshaldj]

I left Tancredo out as a “legitimate Conservative”, but his candidacy is simply unviable. He needs to be ginning up to run for the Senate against Salazar in 2010. Under no circumstances will I vote for Rudy McRombee in either the primary or the general. A victory by them over Hillary is pyrhhic. We’ll lose far more than we gain.

[Bobbisox]

With people like you fighting the fight where he can, Fred will pull this out and it will come down between Fred and Rudy.

Thompson will be our candidate. I’m so sure, I too will say goodnight to all Freepers...even flaglady, who says in the end she will support Fred as well.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. Fred is alive in our hearts.

[restornu]

[A CA Guy]

We’ll see how it goes.

I can’t say he’s been burning up the airwaves with news of him.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Fred believed too much money, special interests, etc., were involved in campaigns and corrupting the process. His heart was in the right place, but it wasn’t a workable solution. He’s since voiced the opinion that it just hasn’t worked.

I do have to say that it is unfortunate that only millionaires or billionaires are considered viable for federal office or Governorships. Not what the Founding Fathers intended.

[Romneyfor President2008]

Was Bush a conservative?

I frankly don’t care that Romney is a liberal RINO and not a conservative. He’s running for president of the USA, not the ACU.

I was very ideological in college. I guess I outgrew all that.

Anyways, the success of conservatism in America isn’t going to depend on who the President is, on any one man. Conservatism depends on each individual. We are individualists, not collectivists.

[flaglady47]

And a Happy Thanksgiving to all Freepers, so many of whom provide vociferous, funny, delightful, entertaining, painful, nasty, thoughtful, adamant, and generally very witty and clever remarks, taking the art of debate to new heights and enlightening not only ourselves but those who frequent this website. (I suspect many political bigwigs lurk here everyday). Now, don’t eat too much....forget that, stuff it in till you look like the turkey.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Simple. Because Romney sandbagged a viable successor to him in 2002 for Lieutenant Governor, Jim Rappaport, and supported instead an extremely unqualified Kerry Healey (who couldn’t even win a legislative seat in her hometown) because she was no “threat” to him, that when Romney decided to cut and run from his responsibilities when a 2nd term reelection was coming up, he dumped it all on the hapless Healey and went on his crusade for the Presidency (which apparently was the plan all along, he didn’t give a damn what vehicle he used to get there, nor what damage he left in his wake in his quest). Healey couldn’t campaign her way out of a paper bag, and she predictably lost in a landslide. Romney couldn’t have done a better job with handing the keys to Patrick and clearing a path for his victory.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I hope so. I fear for this republic if he isn’t.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I frankly don’t care that Romney is a liberal RINO and not a conservative."

Thank you for your honesty, sir. You just exposed your agenda.