What facts do you have to support this assumption? You can't know exactly what the political climate will be 2 or 4 years from now. 2010 could be like 1994, or it could be like 2002 or it could be like neither.
I base it on what happened after Carter was elected, and to a certain extent, what happened after Clinton was elected. Clinton triangulated hard, and we nominated a stab-you-in-the-back moderate in 96...but we won a lot of house, senate and state seats in the clintoon years.
An ‘in-your-face liberal’ drives the country right. If they were nominating Bill again, I’d be more worried. I don’t think Hillary has a charming bone in her body.
I also think a Rudy loss in 2008 would remind the GOP what happens when you spit on the base...and they won’t let it happen again in 2012.
Just IMHO, of course. But it explains why I might well sit out a Hillary-Rudy election cycle.