When you are long, short, sideways, covering this base after the other, and looking under the bed for the boogey man, the only thing that happens is, the account slowly goes down due to expenses!
For me...
Better to be long and just always try to avoid the really stupid over inflated nonsense stuff. When a great long bond comes along with a decent rate, throw it in for good measure...
And when you buy stock, pick the ones that are the biggest/cleanest most household names, after they’ve been beaten down, kicked, spit upon. I just love those kinds of stocks, and amazed at how much money can be made, with little risk. The funny thing too is, that they are always available, no matter what the market.
Back in 1999 and 2000 there were tons of great big value names with big dividends trading half of their previous highs. While the market tanked for years, they doubled, tripled and even quadrupled. CMI DE and CAT were some, along with most bank stocks, insurance companies, and defense contractors...
The really really big and cheap thing does typically mean you need to be patient, wait a few years. And that is so boring to people that think they’re entitled to doubling their money every six months...
Your rationale for the beasts like Boeing and other multinationals/exporters that can now do some traveling because of the dollar makes sense. I’ve been going there as of late along with picking off some corporate bonds now and then.
PS I’m not in your business but I have been trading my own $ for some years.