NH is important (and Rody will probably do well there), but it too is not the end of the line.
The BIG DAY is Feb 8th, super-duper Tuesday. Rudy will dominate there.
FWIW, I'm a FDT supporter.
Iowa means a great deal in terms of momentum. Howard Dean’s lead completely collapsed after Iowa and he lost in New Hampshire which was his neighboring state (granted it was Kerry’s neighboring state, but it’s also Romney’s). Whoever has the momentum after Iowa and New Hampshire nearly always wins the nomination.