Posted on 10/02/2007 5:44:26 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
1 VIRGINIA Open Seat (R-Warner) Last Ranking: 15
Back in '98, a governor and a former governor (George Voinovich and Evan Bayh) waltzed into open Senate seats with virtually no resistance. Virginia Republicans will certainly put up a stronger fight against former Gov. Mark Warner, but they aren't helped by the prospect of an ideologically polarizing primary or convention. Even so, Warner, unlike Bayh, has to run in a red state during a presidential year, making it more difficult for this NASCAR Democrat to distance himself from the national party. Warner's record has never been scrutinized during a campaign, but his high name ID/positives ensure that he will have to undergo significant "softening up" before voters will be receptive to attacks on the former governor's record.
2 NEW HAMPSHIRE John Sununu (R) Last Ranking: 4
Incumbents who begin re-election campaigns as underdogs usually don't win. It's possible that former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's lead in the polls may be inflated a bit since she hasn't served in office for five years. But the national environment will have to improve between now and next fall if Sununu is to keep his seat.
3 COLORADO Open Seat (R-Allard) Last Ranking: 2
With the candidates still in fundraising mode, things have been pretty quiet here. We won't know until next month if former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) is keeping pace with Rep. Mark Udall (D) in the money chase. Even so, the fact that his own polling shows him 5 points behind the Democrat means he's got to be able to outspend Udall to define this race before it defines him. It's undeniable that Dems have had a couple of good cycles here, but with fairly moderate candidates (Ken Salazar and Bill Ritter) leading the ticket. We'll see if Udall is able to establish a similar image with state voters.
4 LOUISIANA Mary Landrieu (D) Last Ranking: 1
Treasurer John Kennedy is likely to challenge Landrieu, and with no opponent in his re-election bid and a $2 million war chest burning a hole in his pocket, he can certainly do a lot to boost his name ID this fall. We'll also have a better read on the state's altered demographics after the November elections.
5 MINNESOTA Norm Coleman (R) Last Ranking: 2
Of the remaining three blue-state Republicans, it's worth noting that Coleman is the only freshman of the trio and hasn't yet built up the statewide goodwill that Gordon Smith or Susan Collins have. So he's arguably slightly more vulnerable than the others, although Coleman's DFL opponents are more untested (and baggage-laden).
6 MAINE Susan Collins (R) Last Ranking: 5
As of now, voters don't seem to be in the mood to fire Collins. Democratic Rep. Tom Allen (Maine-01) has 13 months to change that, and he'll certainly be helped if the situation in Iraq doesn't improve over the next year.
7 OREGON Gordon Smith (R) Last Ranking: 7
It's still a bit early in Democratic House Speaker Jeff Merkley's campaign to fully gauge him as a candidate, and we'll know more once he files his third-quarter fundraising numbers. We do know he wasn't the Dems' first pick and his support for an Iraq resolution in 2003 helps Smith blur the anti-war attacks. This race will be dictated by the environment more than anything else.
8 NEBRASKA Open Seat (R-Hagel) Last Ranking: 14
If former Sen./Gov. Bob Kerrey runs, this race will move up; if he doesn't, it'll move way down.
9 ALASKA Ted Stevens (R) Last Ranking: 29
Yes, Stevens can probably weather legal troubles better than most incumbents, but with so many potential shoes yet to drop, this has to be a race to watch. If he doesn't run for re-election, Republicans almost certainly hold it.
10 SOUTH DAKOTA Tim Johnson (D) Last Ranking: 6
Johnson assuaged many doubts with his first public appearance, although he still hasn't officially announced a re-election bid yet. And, despite the Republican tilt of the state, there is not a deep bench of top-tier candidates ready to run.
Here’s another take on the upcoming elections. I try to remain hopeful.
Right now, I'd say, we lose VA, OR (likely for sure).
Ted Stevens needs to RETIRE! in AK - If he does (which he should) we keep that seat without question -
MA,NH,CO and MN are all going to be close as hell (we are defending all 4!). We likely lose at least 2 of them, maybe 3. I doubt all 4.
We will hold NEB (which will really be a pick-up considering what a tool Hagel is).
We also have real shots at PICK-Ups in both SD and LA. If we can "nationalize" those two races....we can pick them up - Certainly in SD -
Our base (along with the foolish and even more foolishly timed WH on immigration) cost our party hugely in 06 - Which will be felt for years to come - We lost a number of young, true conservatives in 06 -
Your reply was so good, I read it twice.
Run against the abysmal performance of the Democratic Congress. Does the public really want more of the same?
ping
Perhaps you may want to comment on this, as DJ seems to be away at the moment.
It’s very puzzling to me why Bayh did not run for President. He must have a skeleton in his closet that he was afraid would be exposed. And he’s smart enough to not risk exposing it.
There is a rumor of a female skeleton in his closet. I have no way of knowing if it's a true rumor. Of course, the son of a governor can get pretty much anything covered up.....
Female?
He must be a real scaredy-cat. Since when is that a liability?
VA - Lose (’Let’s reelect “Sen.” Warner’)
NH - Lose (Shaheen is favored)
CO - Win (Hillary has high negatives in CO)
LA - Win (Demographic change)
MN - Win (Franken will beat Franken)
ME - Win (Collins is popular)
OR - Win (I think Gordo etches it out)
NE - Win (Hillary will kill the downticket)
AK - Win (Assuming retirement)
SD - Win (Hillary will kill the downticket)
With Hillary, I think we also have a shot at Montana. It’s not impossible that lightning could strike in any of these contests: MA, IA, NJ. Kerry is facing what looks to be a stiff challenge from former Delta Force/FBI/CIA professional Mr. Beatty. Harkin is a very liberal senator in a swing state; there is already buzz of his ACU rating of 8 which is left of Hillary (think of Bush’s “Ted Kennedy is the conservative senator from MA”). Lautenberg is getting very old.
I hope very much that you’re right.
That’s a mostly hopeful analysis, but very reasonable. I hope that it’s reasonably accurate.
“Run against the abysmal performance of the Democratic Congress. Does the public really want more of the same?”
Good point.
It will take more than Hillary’s negatives to drive the Rodent downticket. Remember the GOP national party entities are broke and the Rodents are swimming in money. The Rodent candidates below Hillary must make their own self inflicted wounds to go down.
That’s a good point.
Another factor at play is that the Rodents are trying to recruit wealthy, self-financing candidates in second and their-tier races (Georgia, Texas, Kansas, perhaps Idaho) to keep the GOP financially stretched to the limit.
I hope you’re right.
Eight wins out of ten seats will really blow the dimocrats away!
49 + 8 = 57
Withing itching distance of that magic “60” votes!
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