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Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran
To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

Posted on 09/26/2007 10:31:25 AM PDT by Salem

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:

syria_map

Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Israel
KEYWORDS: f15; f16; india; iran; israel; jackwheeler; russiantechnology; sept62007; syria; terror; wheeler; wot
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1 posted on 09/26/2007 10:31:27 AM PDT by Salem
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To: SJackson; yonif; Simcha7; American in Israel; Slings and Arrows; judicial meanz; Taiwan Bocks; ...
"Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

I think the Syrians got ripped off.  !












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2 posted on 09/26/2007 10:33:42 AM PDT by Salem (What can men do against such reckless hate? ... Ride out with me. Ride out and meet them!)
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To: Salem

I think Syria’s silence is due to more than just perhaps a broken down air defense. I think they’ve been caught with their radioactive pants down.


3 posted on 09/26/2007 10:34:24 AM PDT by Slapshot68
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Salem
And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th. Nothing.

So much for the Russophile wankers who claim the bear is now a force to be reckoned with.

5 posted on 09/26/2007 10:36:03 AM PDT by wideawake (Why is it that so many self-proclaimed "Constitutionalists" know so little about the Constitution?)
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To: Salem

> Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped
> about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

In addition to the speculations in the article (which
might suffice to explain it), there is also the curious
question of “has anyone seen Assad lately?”.

Condi supposedly had a phone conference with Syria
on the 25th, but has said little about it, in particular
whether the Basher himself was on the line.

Other than that, I see nothing from him in the media
since before the incursion. I’m wondering it Syria is
quiet because they are frantically trying to dig him
and a bunch of top Baathists out of some ruins at a
target site.


6 posted on 09/26/2007 10:37:10 AM PDT by Boundless (Legacy Media is hazardous to your mental health)
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To: Salem; Dark Wing; Dog Gone; a_Turk; TigerLikesRooster

It may depend on who is operating the air-defense surveillance system too. It is looking more and more like Mossad has penetrated Syria’s intelligence and armed forces.


7 posted on 09/26/2007 10:37:25 AM PDT by Thud
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To: Salem

Iran and Syria against America and Israel is like a mouse trying to fight a hungry lion. Syria got owned. You are next Iran.


8 posted on 09/26/2007 10:38:01 AM PDT by Shaun_MD ("Republic of Texas")
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To: jeffers; Dog; bert; mountn man; Fitzy_888; Southack

repost but addresses the bouncing of Russian radar


9 posted on 09/26/2007 10:38:02 AM PDT by txhurl (Yes there were WMDs)
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To: Salem
I think the Syrians got ripped off.

The Russians wouldn't do that, or would they?

Bwahahahahaha.

I guess you take the boy out of the KGB, but you can't take the KGB out of the boy.

10 posted on 09/26/2007 10:38:03 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (Hillary 2008: "The willing suspension of disbelief")
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To: Salem

Great post.


11 posted on 09/26/2007 10:38:46 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: Dog; jeffers

pong


12 posted on 09/26/2007 10:38:59 AM PDT by nuconvert ("Terrorism is not the enemy. It is a means to the ends of militant Islamism." MZJ)
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To: Salem

Methinks the Russkies sold them some bum equipment.


13 posted on 09/26/2007 10:39:24 AM PDT by RockinRight (Can we start calling Fred "44" now, please?)
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To: stm

Well said.


14 posted on 09/26/2007 10:39:53 AM PDT by RockinRight (Can we start calling Fred "44" now, please?)
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To: Salem

There is no defense anymore. Iran best make peace now.


15 posted on 09/26/2007 10:41:08 AM PDT by RightWhale (25 degrees today. Phase state change accomplished.)
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To: RockinRight

Russians are the greatest used car salesmen in the world.


16 posted on 09/26/2007 10:41:10 AM PDT by Shaun_MD ("Republic of Texas")
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To: Salem

“Defenseless enemies are fun”
Great bumper sticker, that


17 posted on 09/26/2007 10:41:15 AM PDT by Squidpup ("Fight the Good Fight")
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To: wideawake; Boundless; Thud
I imagine Assad on the phone to Putin, wondering why Israeli aircraft, like bees, are flying his skies unopposed, with all that overrated, overrated Russian anti-aircraft junk dotting his landscape. Whatever the reasons, it’s just funny.
18 posted on 09/26/2007 10:43:42 AM PDT by Salem (What can men do against such reckless hate? ... Ride out with me. Ride out and meet them!)
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To: Salem
Awesome! Best news I’ve heard all day. Only Democrats are saddened by this news.
19 posted on 09/26/2007 10:43:47 AM PDT by Obadiah
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To: Salem

It reminds me of “Back to the Future”, where the Professor sells the Libyans pinball machine parts for a nuclear weapon- ha


20 posted on 09/26/2007 10:44:50 AM PDT by yankeesdoodle
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