This is not one of those times. I have tried to remain respectful and understanding in the face of some fairly derisive comments rgearding this, which apparently will continue. If in your estimation I have failed to do show respect or good decorum, I apologize.
I am also sorry you feel the way you do. It has not been my intent to mislead, to add chaff, or to otherwise create a wrong impression...and yet I apparently have failed in that, for the which I again am sorry.
But the facts are, as I have indicated from the start, that the SU-30s that Chavez has bought pose a serious threat to the UK task force and that that task force would be in there range and require US help. The Venezuelans have had refueling capability for something like 40 years I believe, and one of the major selling points of the SU30s they bought (among others, including anti-shipping missile capability) is its inflight refueling capability which gives it the range to pose the threat.
I am sorry you feel the way you do about my intent and my character...but your feelings thereof, though something I had not sought or intended, and though something I sincerely regret, can be just as mistaken as you claim I am.
Others will have to judge for themselves.
Looking at the map posted earlier I think all Chavez would need is the cooperation of Chile to put his forces in the thick of it.
However Chile would be very foolish to do so as we import tons of fresh vegetables and fruit from them and I'm sure that would end pronto.
BTW, we helped Britain w/ material and transportation during the Falklands war. IIRC C-130 trips to the Ascensions primarily.
Sorry, but "...the facts are, as I have indicated from the start..." did not include air-to-air refueling capability of Hugo's air force. That was brought up later. This began with your 102 post: "If we do not provide that help, then the UK, IMHO, in either case, would not be able to get past Venesuela on the way down to the Falklands."
Had you said instead: "If we do not provide that help, then the UK, IMHO, in either case, would not be able to get past air-to-air refueled Venezuelan SU-30s on the way down to the Falklands." there would not have been any comment by myself.
Matter of fact, "air-to-air refuelling" was not mentioned in the Times article and was first mentioned in this thread by britemp on post 144 in reference to RAF Typhoons flying to Ascension Island.
This will be my final comment on this matter and the last time I shall join any of Jeff Head's threads as he makes it clear you must either telepathically toe his line of thinking or not be in the approved loop...
When all this began, there had not been any mention of the Venezuelan Air Force air-to-air refueling asset. Only the 24 SU-30MK Chavez had purchased and their taking on a hypothetical British Naval Task Force on the way to the Falklands.
My reply was to the extent that any British Task Force would not pass anywhere close enough to Venezuela for the SU-30s to attack unless it was suicide flights.
It was said that the Brits were passing east of Hugoland, so they were in danger. Bringing air-to-air refueling into the conversation at this point makes that in the realm of possibility. Yet it could also be said with air-to-air refueling suddenly in the equation, Hugo’s air force could attack the Brit Task Force while it passed through the Suez Canal! Or as they rounded the Cape of Good Hope! Or even in the Thames as they gear up to leave...
My attempts at googling the following info is not the final authority, but it is the best I have been able to find at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_Air_Force http://www.scramble.nl/ve.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/venezuela/airforce.htm
The best out-and-back range of the SU-30MK I could find was 3,000 km (1,620 nm). The mention of one KC-135 airtanker for Hugo’s air force comes from Jeff Head, my looking only gives mention of one 707 and mention of six C-130 transports and no mention of any of them having an air-to-air refueling ability.
Hypothetically we have a British Task Force leaving the UK and heading down to Ascension Island. Knowing of Hugo’s threat, they keep as close to the cost of Africa as possible to make their distance from Venezuela around 2,900 miles.
The art and ability to send out a bombing force to that range takes a great deal of assets and professionalism even with the USAF who train for this each and every day. To give that capability to Hugo’s air force with a single KC-135 type tanker, only 10 SU-30MK on hand today and 14 more expected in 2008 is a fantasy. No amount of money or hardware can instantly make a formidable force to fly out, attack an opposing naval fleet and expect to do significant damage and return the majority of your attack air craft. It take training over and over again a long time to be proficient in this.
Perhaps in a year or two if Hugo bought more airtankers and trained the devil out of his SU-30s, they may have a chance.
Now, tracking this fleet would fall to Russian spy satellites and the info passed on to Hugo.
So, given all this hypothetical hardware, training and tracking, I will admit it is a slim possibility Hugo’s air force could take on the attack mission and make the Brits turn back as Jeff Head said in his humble opinion.
Yet, as it has been pointed out I clearly do not fathom the geographic situation and do not grasp the military situation, so I say, Jeff, go ahead (pun intended) and be the only one with any grasp of any hypothetical geographic/political/military situation any where, any place, any time...
You have taken one who once considered you a colleague, a friend, and, in short order, have stripped away any and all friendship and collegiality from them...
You, sir, may have floor for eternity and I say good bye and good riddance!
UK is disarming its navy, that is a story that needs to be understood. Chavez is a troublemaker buying advanced arms, that is a story that needs to be understood. But the UK and Argentina are not remotely going to fight each other - the Argentina of the present hour is Chavez and the threat is to places like Trinidad not the Falklands - and if they did Venezuela would yap like a terrier but not do a thing about it. If they do buy the subs they are talking about, they might acquire some ability, but that isn't what they'd use it for anyway. Don't take the idiot's propaganda at face value. Take it for what it actually is - the incoherent prestige-seeking bluster of a dangerous (but profoundly stupid) man.