One-Child Foreign Policy: Lower birth rates will alter both society and strategy

American Conservative ^ | 1 Septemenber 2007 | James Kurth

[shrinkermd]

Until recently, demographic changes were so slow that they hardly seemed to be a variable effecting strategic challenges. But today, many major nations are undergoing rapid and evident changes in their demographic structure. This is most obvious in Europe, but it is also the case in the United States, Russia, China, and Japan. Demographic disruption is impacting America, all of its major allies, and all of its traditional or potential adversaries.

In Western countries, the combination of a sharp decline in the birth rates of the European or European-descended population, on the one hand, and the sharp increase in the non-European immigrant population, on the other, is causing a great transformation in social structure and national identity, which is bringing about a major transformation in military strategy. The process has only begun, but in the years ahead, history will teach us once again that demography is destiny.

In order for a particular population to sustain its numbers, it should have an average reproduction rate of 2.1 births per woman. But the birth rate for almost every Western nation has fallen below 1.5 during the last couple of decades. In Italy and Spain, formerly the European nations with the highest birth rates, it is now under 1.3. Although the United States has a rising population, that growth is entirely due to immigration and to the higher reproduction rates of peoples of non-European origin. With the exception of devout religious communities—especially the Mormons—among most European-American groups, reproduction rates are below the level of sustainability.

[Tax-chick]

Although the United States has a rising population, that growth is entirely due to immigration and to the higher reproduction rates of peoples of non-European origin

Nonsense.

[johnny7]

Nonsense.

From what I've read... it's spot-on. However the premise of this piece... relating a declining birthrate to 'strategic challenges' is archaeic.

[Tax-chick]

I was at church yesterday with about 15 families, average of five children per family. Only one family showed any signs of being “non-European.”

[johnny7]

Your’s is the exception... believe me.

[kabar]

The current fertility rate in the US is 2.09, just a little below replacement level of 2.11. However, we take in over a million LEGAL immigrants annually [60% of whom come from Latin America] and 500,000 to 1 million illegals a year, the overwhelming majority of whom come from Latin America. Immigration accounts for about 3/4 of our population growth, .89% a year, the highest among developed countries.

Half of the children in the US between the ages 0-5 are minorities. Hispanics [of all races] were 1% of the US population in 1950. They are over 15% of the population today and will be 24.4% of the population by 2050. Non-Hispanic whites were 89% of the population in 1965, 67% today, and will be 50% in 2050.

"Unless the life chances of children raised by single mothers suddenly improve, the explosive growth of the U.S. Hispanic population over the next couple of decades does not bode well for American social stability. "

"The dimensions of the Hispanic baby boom are startling. The Hispanic birthrate is twice as high as that of the rest of the American population. That high fertility rate – even more than unbounded levels of immigration – will fuel the rapid Hispanic population boom in the coming decades."

Demography is indeed destiny.

[Albion Wilde]

Everybody is copying Mark Steyn, who wrote first about this phenomenon, last year in America Alone.

[liberty or death]

May not be so in your experience and the circles in which you travel but that doesn't’t make it nonsense. My mother and her 3 siblings had 4 to 7 children each for a total of 23 children. Those 23 children have an average of 1.2 children each with about 1/3rd having none. My wife and I have 5. We are all 40 to 50 now so more kids won’t be coming. My point is that most of European Americans that I know here on the west coast are nonreligious, self centered do not want the burden of children.

Beautiful family you have by the way.

[ex-snook]

Islam doesn’t need to develop a WMD, we already have the pill, abortion and women on the front lines. Demographics is the future. No turnaround in sight.

[Tax-chick]

Thanks! We're 40 to 50, too ... but we still may have more children.

It is nonsense to say the United States' population growth is entirely due to immigration and "non-European" families. Off-topic, I've been noticing more of this racist phrasing in just the last few days. I hope it's just a fluke.

[shrinkermd]

Yes, good post. It seems that if women are given the choice of having children or not, many do not.

[ex-snook]

"Everybody is copying Mark Steyn, who wrote first about this phenomenon, last year in America Alone."

Buchanan's "Death of the West" was 2001.

[Tax-chick]

It seems that if women are given the choice of having children or not, many do not.

Only women, of course ... men are all eager to be fathers of a dozen.

[Scotswife]

“I was at church yesterday with about 15 families, average of five children per family. Only one family showed any signs of being “non-European.””

Our church is full of large families.

The odd thing is....1 set of quads, 2 sets of triplet, 2 sets of identical twins, and 1 or 2 sets of fraternal twins.

[Old Professer]

Sorry, the statement is entirely true.

A recent mitigating factor is the observation of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants also adopting the fewer children approach so that forecasts of population may fall short fifty years down the road, but the population percentages by ethnic origin and race will surely show a reverse trend to the past.

[kabar]

Much of it has to do with affluence and equality of the sexes. The problem is that our governmental immigration policy is pro-population grow with most of the immigrants coming from the third world. As a result, we are changing the demographics of this country dramatically in a very short period of time. This has to have an impact on this country, most of it not good.

Here are the rank orders of the world's total fertility rates and birth rates. Immigration, legal and illegal, is driving our population growth.

[liberty or death]

When race is part of a conversation, why is that labeled racism? Also recognizing and dealing with problems within our society cannot be acomplished if we create an umbrella of silence because of race.

My family (Cousins included) is European, Mexican and American Indian.

The major problems in our society are because we do not deal with them for fear of the racism label. Here in Montana the Indians are the major crime problem specifically because they will not be dealt with as normal citizens but are treated with kid gloves because of that race. Some of these criminals are relatives of mine and most were raised on the government handouts. This is the true home of racism in our society.

[kabar]

A recent mitigating factor is the observation of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants also adopting the fewer children approach so that forecasts of population may fall short fifty years down the road, but the population percentages by ethnic origin and race will surely show a reverse trend to the past.

Here is a 2004 Bureau of the Census population projection for the US 2000-2050 broken down by Race and Hispanic origin

Here is a just released report, "Projecting the Impact of Immigration On the U.S. Population, 2007 to 2060 Unfortunately, like the frog placed in a pot of cold water that is slowly heated, we [Americans] will fail to understand what is happening to us before it is too late. The Immigration and Nationality Act amendments of 1965 (Hart-Celler Act, INS Act of 1965, Pub.L. 89-236) has had far-reaching effects on the demographics of this country.

During debate on the Senate floor, Senator Kennedy, speaking of the effects of the act, said, "...our cities will not be flooded with a million immigrants annually.... Secondly, the ethnic mix of this country will not be upset...." The act's supporters not only claimed the law would not change America's ethnic makeup, but that such a change was not desirable. However, in the end, this act dramatically changed the face of American society by making it a multicultural, multiethnic nation. Prior to the act, the United States was overwhelmingly composed of whites of European descent (89% in 1965), with the only minority group of significant size being blacks (10%).

Since the implementation of the law, the relative proportion of the white population has been in steady decline, with whites projected to lose their majority status during the 21st century. Hispanics, a group composed of Spanish-speaking whites, blacks, indigenous tribes, and those of mixed ancestry have replaced English-speaking African Americans as the largest minority in the U.S. There has also been enormous growth of immigration from non-European nations since the implementation of the law. By 2050, one in every four residents of the US will be Hispanic.

[Tax-chick]

“Racism” is considering ancestry to be relevant to a topic when it isn’t. It doesn’t matter whether families are of “European” or “non-European” background. We’re all born by the same natural process!

What matters is marriage, education, discipline, work, morals, etc.

[kabar]

“Racism” is considering ancestry to be relevant to a topic when it isn’t. It doesn’t matter whether families are of “European” or “non-European” background.

In the case of demographics and immigration, it is relevant. This country is being Balkanized along cultural and linguistic lines. Immigration, legal and illegal, and fertility rates are changing the composition of this country dramatically. It is a reality that we must recognize and deal with as a matter of public policy. Calling people racists and bigots just hinders a discussion of the issue and how best to handle it as a matter of policy.

The Hispanic Challenge By Samuel P. Huntington

FYI: In your state of North Carolina, using the census data from 1990 and 2000, the foreign-born population of the state grew from 115,380 to 436,513. The Mexican-born population increased during those ten years from 8,751 to 179,236.