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Document drop: A new critique of the 2004 Lancet Iraq death toll study
Michelle Malkin ^ | 7/25/07

Posted on 07/25/2007 3:19:12 PM PDT by bnelson44

One of the most useful roles of the blogosphere is its service as an open-source intelligence-gathering medium. You can draw on the expertise of people around the world at the touch of a button. We saw this with typography experts during the Rathergate scandal; Photoshop experts during the Reutersgate debacle; and military experts during the Jesse Macbeth unmasking.

Now, it’s the statisticians and math geeks’ turn. Remember that massively-publicized 2004 Lancet Iraq death toll study? It was cited in nearly 100 scholarly journals and reported by news outlets around the world. “100,000 Civilian Deaths Estimated in Iraq” blared the Washington Post in a typical headline.

There were attempts made by lay journalists to debunk the 2004 study (as well as the 2006 follow-up study that purported to back up the first). But none of those dissections comes close to a damning new statistical analysis of the 2004 study authored by David Kane, Institute Fellow at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University. I read of Kane’s new paper at this science blog and e-mailed him for permission to reprint his analysis in its entirety here so that a wider blog readership could have a look. He has given me his permission and adds that he welcomes comments and feedback. He’ll be presenting the paper at the Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City on Monday — the largest conference of statisticians in North America.

Much of the math here is mind-numbingly complicated, but Kane’s bottom line is simple: the Lancet authors “cannot reject the null hypothesis that mortality in Iraq is unchanged.” Translation: according to Kane, the confidence interval for the Lancet authors’ main finding is wrong. Had the authors calculated the confidence interval correctly, Kane asserts that they would have failed to identify a statistically significant increase in risk of death in Iraq, let alone the widely-reported 98,000 excess civilian deaths.

An interesting side note: as Kane observes in his paper, the Lancet authors “refuse to provide anyone with the underlying data (or even a precise description of the actual methodology).” The researchers did release some high-level summary data in highly aggregated form (see here), but they released neither the detailed interviewee-level data nor the programming code that would be necessary to replicate their results.

Kane has sent his paper to Lancet. But the blogosphere need not wait for Lancet to complete its review. If you’ve got a statistics background or know someone who does, have a look. Kane’s e-mail address is He’s a blogger himself at EphBlog.


Document at link

TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: bodycount; deathtoll; iraq; lancet; malkin

1 posted on 07/25/2007 3:19:16 PM PDT by bnelson44
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To: bnelson44

Yet another canard gets shot down under scrutiny.

2 posted on 07/25/2007 3:21:07 PM PDT by coloradan (Failing to protect the liberties of your enemies establishes precedents that will reach to yourself.)
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To: coloradan

3 posted on 07/25/2007 3:22:55 PM PDT by Diogenesis (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: bnelson44

The following is an example of the typical journalist’s level of math/statistics knowledge.

“California transportation officials recently announced that 30% of traffic fatalities involved drivers under the influence of alcohol or drugs.”

It is therefore imperative that we rid the roads of the 70% sober people causing the vast majority of accidents.

4 posted on 07/25/2007 3:29:18 PM PDT by Jacquerie (All Muslims are suspect.)
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To: coloradan

Yup, and I’m sure the WaPo will carry this on the front page.

5 posted on 07/25/2007 3:34:59 PM PDT by BJClinton (pfft)
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To: bnelson44

The Lancet was once a major medical journal. Now it is third rate political propaganda.

It is totally unheard of in true science to “refuse to provide anyone with the underlying data (or even a precise description of the actual methodology).”

This is Al Gore type global warming “research.”

6 posted on 07/25/2007 4:16:38 PM PDT by FormerACLUmember (The ideal tyranny is that which is ignorantly self-administered by its victims.)
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Cumulative US deaths
month by month
in Iraq
Cumulative US deaths
month by month
in Korea
65 2,849
138 4,603
175 7,948
205 8,334
252 11,809
287 13,963
317 14,620
360 16,688
442 17,574
482 18,646
529 19,807
548 20,613
600 20,927
747 21,431
835 22,825
879 24,484
940 25,015
1,011 25,236
1,095 25,442
1,163 25,589
1,303 25,764
1,376 25,990
1,484 26,191
1,546 26,675
1,582 27,125
1,634 27,537
1,716 28,156
1,793 29,173
1,848 29,475
1,933 29,672
1,987 29,845
2,083 30,088
2,171 30,629
2,238 30,939
2,303 31,138
2,359 31,609
2,392 32,615
2,473 32,622
2,544 32,627
2,605 32,690
2,656 32,742
2,726 33,102
2,802 33,233
2,910 33,362
2,986 33,445

7 posted on 07/25/2007 4:55:16 PM PDT by syriacus (If the US troops had remained in S. Korea in 1949, there would have been no Korean War (1950-53).)
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