Don't be obtuse, Carton. It's a "Have you stopped beating your wife?" question. The answer just isn't the one you hoped to hear on your blame fishing expedition. As well ask "Didn't Beauregard and Davis know it meant war when they besieged Sumter?"
The answer in both instances is the same. They thought it likely might, hoped it wouldn't, and did it anyway to maintain their politically mandated position.
Did you not read the entire exchange between Non-Sequitur and I? For your posts lead me to believe you did not. Especially your last paragraph.