Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[MACVSOG68]

My understanding is that the participants in the Whiskey Rebellion were pardoned, which would seem an indication that their actions can't have been seen as particularly heinous by those in power.

Don't tell that to then President Washington. He sent the army in to rout them out and put down their rebellion. He wasn't amused, nor did he look to the 2d Amendment smiling.

Almost nobody particularly likes having to take up arms, but the Founding Fathers clearly expected citizens to both (1) take up arms against criminals, when the government was legitimately acting against them, and (2) take up arms against rogue government agents, as necessary, when they exceeded their authority.

The Founding Fathers didn't agree on almost any part of the Constitution. Have you ever read the Anti-Federalist Papers? That should give you some idea of the confusion, the concerns and the differences of opinion that prevailed at the time. As for taking up arms against rogue government officials, Mr. Madison characterized it as the duty of the state authorized militia, not a bunch of partly organized gangs. At the time, that was both the filler for our military and the state's national guard.

[supercat]

Don't tell that to then President Washington. He sent the army in to rout them out and put down their rebellion. He wasn't amused, nor did he look to the 2d Amendment smiling.

He put them down, but he also pardoned the participants, did he not?

[MACVSOG68]

He put them down, but he also pardoned the participants, did he not?

Sure but Johnson pardoned most of the Confederates, and Clinton pardoned the terrorists from Puerto Rico so his wife could be elected. None of that makes the original offenses any more right.

[supercat]

Sure but Johnson pardoned most of the Confederates, and Clinton pardoned the terrorists from Puerto Rico so his wife could be elected.

You compare pardons by the two impeached presidents to those by George Washington, the man considered by many to have been the greatest president ever?

Regardless, I should ask who it was that quashed the rebellion? If I recall, it was not full time soldiers in any U.S. army, but rather armed citizens who answered their country's call.

In other words, the armed citizens who did not favor the rebellion outnumbered those that did, and thus quashed it. You would rather the government have a full time standing army to handle such things?

[MACVSOG68]

You compare pardons by the two impeached presidents to those by George Washington, the man considered by many to have been the greatest president ever?

People here forget to distinguish between Washington the general, and Washington the president. He was truly a great man, but had a relatively peaceful presidency. He was rarely challenged, had a very thin skin, and understood politics. His pardon was completely political and served to help mollify the Western frontier citizens, who weren't all that thrilled with the strong central government the Constitution brought. He had to prove to them that this new government was not toothless, but at the same time could also be compassionate. But his presidency was, as I said relatively crisis free, until Jefferson began his anti-federalist campaign. Washington found that after being the butt of jokes in some Jeffersonian (Republican) newspapers, that he did not have any further interest in the job, and did not run for a third term.

As for greatness, none can equal or even approach Lincoln. But that's a discussion for another thread.

Regardless, I should ask who it was that quashed the rebellion? If I recall, it was not full time soldiers in any U.S. army, but rather armed citizens who answered their country's call.

That's because the army was almost nonexistent. So he called up the state militias which were essentially the national guard of the time. He federalized them, just as has been done in other times, and sent them in to crush the rebellion.

In other words, the armed citizens who did not favor the rebellion outnumbered those that did, and thus quashed it. You would rather the government have a full time standing army to handle such things?

Not at all. I'm perfectly satisfied with the national guard and police forces. Occasionally though, they will be nationalized and have to respond to the authority of the President. But this is not the citizen armies you are contemplating. Those would have been the citizens who actually started the Whiskey Rebellion.

[MeanWestTexan]

“Lucianne has become pathological in it Rudymania. I would say about 75-80% are pushing for Rudy. As I mentioned earlier I am on the verge of being banned there for “spamming””

FYI: My password was mysteriously changed there.

Well not so mysteriously, as I was hardly towing the Rudy line.

[NucSubs]

Yeah. I was banned and the mysteriously un-banned. Weird.

They really are petty despots.

[Old_Mil]

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007.

Digging up old poll data gathered before the nation knew that Giuliani was a pro-gay pro-abort and Romney was pro-gay isn't accurate. It's not even news.