I wasnt sure about this six months ago but it looks as though there wont be a recession before the 2008 election....the soft landing has probably been achieved like it was in 1985 and 1995. We'll probably see growth through 2010
This means teh next President will likely end uo with an economy similar to GHW Bush in 1990-92, with a recession in the 2010-12 period exasserbated by the 2010 massive tax increases.
As for the demographic changes Morris mentions, teh Black population is not forecast to rise as a % of the population though the year 2050, but actually fall from 12% today to about 10% in 2050.....Black women have fertility rates that are about at replacement 2.0
The Census Bureau predicts the black population will increase from 36 to 61 million between 2000 and 2050.