Replies

It official...WE...ARE...DOOMED!

I wish I was five years old and as knowledgeable as I am now, so that I could watch the change in public perception of climate change over the entire century (if I was lucky).

I'll make two predictions for the next decade. I could die tomorrow, but I'll be curious to see if either of these come true.

1. At some time during the next 10 years, there will be a salient climate event. I won't predict what it will be -- the likeliest scenario would be an unprecedented heat wave, but it could be something more subtle, like the final disappearance of Kilimanjaro's glaciers. Whatever "it" is, it will have a symbolic power that will cause a strong shift in public opinion of climate change, where the public will basically say to the scientific community "OK -- we believe, and we're very worried. How are you going to save us from calamity?"

2. A major prominent skeptical voice (could be political, could be scientific) -- one that the United States conservative bloc trusts very strongly -- will repudiate their previous skeptical position, apologize for having been wrong and having promoted erroneous thinking on climate change, and indicate that immediate, major action is necessary.

Start the clock.

1. At some time during the next 10 years, there will be a salient climate event. I won't predict what it will be -- the likeliest scenario would be an unprecedented heat wave, but it could be something more subtle, like the final disappearance of Kilimanjaro's glaciers. Whatever "it" is, it will have a symbolic power that will cause a strong shift in public opinion of climate change, where the public will basically say to the scientific community "OK -- we believe, and we're very worried. How are you going to save us from calamity?"

As long as the scientists are not also socialists, that's fine with me.

2. A major prominent skeptical voice (could be political, could be scientific) -- one that the United States conservative bloc trusts very strongly -- will repudiate their previous skeptical position, apologize for having been wrong and having promoted erroneous thinking on climate change, and indicate that immediate, major action is necessary.

He will sign his apologia with his left hand instead of his right, since the aliens from V have obviously converted him. :-)

Start the clock.

January 29, 2017, here we come!

I accept that the earth is warming, although the "hockey stick" was a hoax. I also accept there is a human component to that. I also accept that there is little we can do about it and even that would come at huge costs. Kyoto would produce little reduction in the trend at enormous costs. We are better off to accept higher sea levels and warmer weather and to spend our money (in far smaller amounts) to do something really useful, like eliminate malaria, provide clean drinking water and sanitation, eliminate AIDS . . . .

Climate changes

Men adapt

You are very knowledgable about global warming, so maybe you could answer some questions that I have. I am serious about my appreciation of your expertise.

What is you solution? Enact the draconian step of reducing our Co2 to what level? 1900's 1800's levels? You are sure that this step will save us from global warming?

Your asking us to devote a large chunk of our resources and capital over a very long time to solve this problem. Do you have any numbers on the return in investment? Do we get our money back if it doesn't stop the increase in C02?

Do you use the power of the UN to force India and China the rest of the developing counties to your will? That would be what it would take, global governance with a world wide policing unit that regulated CO2 and energy production, correct?

What are they supposed to use for fuel in the third world countries?

Do we eliminate the methane producing livestock?

Am I way out in leftfield? Billions are fighting over their religion, why would anyone cooperate to reduce Co2 unless they were forced to?

What if it is a good sized meteor, do you still win the bet?