Will the United States Survive Until 2022?

New English Review ^ | January 2007 | John Derbyshire

[rmlew]

“It is said of all great matters under Heaven: What has been long divided must unite, what has been long united must divide.”

—Opening words of The Three Kingdoms Romance, a classic Chinese historical novel by Luo Guanzhong.

The beginning of a new year naturally turns one’s thoughts in a numerical direction. Furthermore, as we look forward to 2007, our imagination is liable to overshoot and find itself contemplating the more distant future: the next fifteen years for example. Why fifteen? Permit me to explain.

* * * * * * *

The ideas I am going to put forward here came about, as ideas often do, from the conjunction of two apparently unconnected events.

Event number one occurred as I was moving a pile of books from one inaccessible place in my attic to another. I turned up an old paperback titled Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? This book was a collection of essays by the Brezhnev-era Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik, the lead-off essay giving the book its title. That essay was written in 1969, so Amalrik was looking fifteen years ahead.

Amalrik’s essay makes dull reading now. He speaks at length of the social stresses in late-Soviet society, and predicts a war with China—a war which, of course, never happened. He was only seven years out in his prediction, though, which is pretty darn good as political prognostications go. And the essay did remind me what a great surprise the collapse of the USSR was to a lot of people, including a lot of high-paid experts. Walter Laqueur points out, in his book on the Soviet Union, that the U.S. government and all its agencies, including the CIA, over-estimated Soviet economic strength to the very end, in some cases by a factor of ten times.

I got to wondering whether some forecast as gloomy as Amalrik’s could be made for the present-day USA. If, following Amalrik’s example, we try to look forward 15 years, to 2022, what, if anything, can we see? There are of course many futures; but some are more probable than others. Are there any probable futures in which the USA has ceased to exist in 2022?

CONTINUED

[rmlew]

This is an interesting piece but I see some major flaws in it.
1. The timespan is wrong. It will take at least another three generations for us to collapse. even liberals want to be Americans. They simply redefine it on their terms. This is also true for immigrants. Until this changes or numbers become overwhelming, we will still survive. Hence, I see 2 generations or 50 years as more reasonable.
As I have written in the past, the Goths have crossed the Danube, Hadrianople awaits.

2. The ethnocentric core the US did not reign supreme in 1960. That is the year that they ceded dominance.

[rmlew]

ping

[rmlew]

ping

[james500]

While I'm sure this is a very interesting article, I believe this has all been covered by Zager and Evans.

[Iwo Jima]

even liberals want to be Americans. They simply redefine it on their terms.

There is a difference is being an American as we have known it and being a "redefined American" such as being part of a North American Union. Being redefined out of existence in the next 15 years is a great threat, which is why getting control of the borders is such a dire necessity and an even greater priority than the war in Iraq.

[Dallas59]

I hope I'm dead.

[Screamname]

This will be the last year of the US. Then in 2008 Hellary will win POTUS, then it will end, and she will win because it`s now 2007 and Repubs still don`t have a candidate.

"Thank you! It`s been a wonderous 230 years, but I`ve just learned I`ve been fired!"

[Mobile Vulgus]

Very interesting... but a long read. Well worth the time, though.

[ReveBM]

Many interesting points are made, but I am stubborn in believing that this country's best days are still ahead of it. I have four children, my wife is not white (from Taiwan), and I am trying to raise them as Christains first and American patriots second, to the best of my ability. Their resilience amazes me. I even will annoy you all by saying that I do not prefer any other time to the present, warts and all. I am hopeful for their future, and on the other hand if Jesus comes tomorrow, I pray frequently that we will all be ready.

Have a nice day, and go about the business of life.

[freeangel]

saving

[EBH]

even liberals want to be Americans

Funny most of them I talk to these days define themselves as Earth Citizens, not Americans. No, this is not sarcasm...it is true. I can't count the times anymore that I've has one of their ilk tell me they don't consider themselves a US citizen.

The 'redefined' American is a thing of the past. Earth Citizenship is an ideal fast becoming popular.

[EBH]

has...too early...

had

[Earthdweller]

"I have four children, my wife is not white (from Taiwan), and I am trying to raise them as Christains first and American patriots second, to the best of my ability."

Thank you. Leave it to a Brit (sorry all other Brits) to mechanically set fault lines. Lol. America will survive based on the glue that binds us and causes our critics to hate us with a vengeance.

On the overhand, Eurabia may well prove to be an oxymoron.

[Brilliant]

"even liberals want to be Americans."



But only because the entitlements are good. Wait until Social Security and Medicare must be cut, and they will bail out like rats from a sinking ship.

[ByteMercenary]

I am sure there is a muslim close by that will be more than happy to accommodate you. There are millions here and not one of them places the USA above the cult of islam.

[napscoordinator]

Wow! You are a true "The sky is falling" person. The United States is NOT going to fall. It is sad that you don't trust in God enough to know that we will be alright. There is nothing wrong with America that hasn't been there for years and years. Liberals were here in the 20's and I never read where people thought America was gone. The only time I believe I read where people thought America was gone was during Watergate because it was such an awful time for America. We have not had anything near that since.

[SIDENET]

LOL!

[freedomfiter2]

Funny most of them I talk to these days define themselves as Earth Citizens, not Americans. No, this is not sarcasm...it is true. I can't count the times anymore that I've has one of their ilk tell me they don't consider themselves a US citizen.


Neither should we.

[AIM-54]

"It is sad that you don't trust in God enough to know that we will be alright."

That holds up only if the culture does an about face. Too many have turned their backs on God. Providence is not unconditional.