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Hurricane Predictions Off Track As Tranquil Season Wafts Away
Tampa Tribune ^ | 11/27/06 | Neil Johnson

Posted on 11/27/2006 2:12:33 AM PST by beyond the sea

It was not the hurricane season we expected, thank you.

With cataclysmic predictions that hurricanes would swarm from the tropics like termites, no one thought 2006 would be the most tranquil season in a decade.

Barring a last-second surprise from the tropics, the season will end Thursday with nine named storms, and only five of those hurricanes. This year is the first season since 1997 that only one storm nudged its way into the Gulf of Mexico.

Still, Florida was hit by two tropical storms, Alberto and Ernesto. But after the pummeling of the previous two years, the storms barely registered on the public's radar.

So what happened? Lots.

Storms were starved for fuel after ingesting masses of dry Saharan dust and air over the Atlantic Ocean. Scientists say the storm-snuffing dust was more abundant than usual this year.

In the season's peak, storms were curving right like errant field goals. High pressure that normally hunkers near Bermuda shifted far eastward, and five storms rode the clockwise winds away from Florida.

Finally, a rapidly growing El Nino, a warming of water over the tropical Pacific Ocean, shifted winds high in the atmosphere southward. The winds left developing storms disheveled and unable to become organized.

As they say about the stock market: Past results are no indication of future performance.

This year's uneventful season provides no assurance that next year will be as calm:

•The Atlantic remains in a 20- to 30-year cycle of high hurricane activity that started in 1995. Water temperatures are above normal.

•El Nino probably won't be around to decapitate storms.

•There's no promise that the Saharan dust will be as abundant.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gore; hurricanes; southcoast
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"storm-snuffing dust" -- lol.

"As they say about the stock market: Past results are no indication of future performance." –- so quit pretending you know what’s going to happen.... might as well just take a poll.

;-)

1 posted on 11/27/2006 2:12:35 AM PST by beyond the sea
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To: All
Other right on predictions:

****

I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

"Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, 1949

"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." -- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.

"But what...is it good for?" -- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

2 posted on 11/27/2006 2:20:10 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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To: beyond the sea
This lack of hurricanes is caused by global warming and is ruining the eco-system!
3 posted on 11/27/2006 2:37:51 AM PST by RWR8189 (Support the Republican Study Committee)
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To: beyond the sea

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!! no wait...


4 posted on 11/27/2006 2:42:37 AM PST by abb (The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
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To: beyond the sea

The predictions resulted in big business down this way ... Katrina has become a cash cow on multiple levels.


5 posted on 11/27/2006 2:43:37 AM PST by mcg2000 (New Orleans: The city that declared Jihad on The Red Cross.)
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To: RWR8189
LOL ............. and Europe is going to freeze over because of global warming.

;-)

6 posted on 11/27/2006 2:44:54 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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To: beyond the sea

Now that the Democrats control congress, there will be no major hurricanes for at least two years.


7 posted on 11/27/2006 2:46:58 AM PST by Fresh Wind (Democrats are guilty of whatever they scream the loudest about.)
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To: Fresh Wind

lol ................... and no temperatures under 0 F. in the lower 48.


8 posted on 11/27/2006 2:54:13 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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To: abb
Hurricane Predictions Off Track As Tranquil Season Wafts Away

--- how about that headline? The season is "wafting" away.

lol

I guess it wafted in too.

9 posted on 11/27/2006 2:56:00 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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To: mcg2000
THE WASHINGTON TIMES --- May 29, 2006

Al Gore's new movie on global warming, "An Inconvenient Truth," opens with scenes from Hurricane Katrina slamming into New Orleans. The former vice president says unequivocally that because of global warming, it is all but certain that future hurricanes will be more violent and destructive than those in the past.

****

Hmmm.

10 posted on 11/27/2006 2:57:49 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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To: beyond the sea

s/ Rhetorical question:

Reckon the Drive-By Media will devote the same hysterical coverage to the end of the Hurricane season that they did at the beginning this year?

/s


11 posted on 11/27/2006 2:59:39 AM PST by abb (The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
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To: beyond the sea

The infallibility of science again. Are these the same people who believe in global warming now being called "climate change?"


12 posted on 11/27/2006 3:18:55 AM PST by Nextrush (Chris Matthews Band: "I get high....I get high.....I get high....McCain.")
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To: beyond the sea

LOL - thanks.


13 posted on 11/27/2006 3:23:06 AM PST by GOPJ (Muslims wear us down through terrorism.They should be worn down through mockery & criticism-Fjordman)
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To: beyond the sea
With cataclysmic predictions that hurricanes would swarm from the tropics like termites,

Other than AccuWeather's routine silly hype of hurricanes hitting the Northeast, there actually weren't any seasonal predictions such as the article claims. Most predicted an above-average year in terms of activity; nobody predicted a record-breaking year or a year with activity even approaching 2005.

14 posted on 11/27/2006 3:54:10 AM PST by Strategerist
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To: Fresh Wind

"Now that the Democrats control congress, there will be no major hurricanes for at least two years."

Nice.


15 posted on 11/27/2006 3:54:45 AM PST by fleagle
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To: beyond the sea

"ingesting masses of dry Saharan dust and air over the Atlantic Ocean"

but...but...I thought the dust was supposed to help increase storms by allowing more condensate to form around the increased amount of dust particles....or does that increase cloud cover and there-fore cool the oceans....I'm so confused...where is the global warming or cooling...oh my the humanity...!


16 posted on 11/27/2006 4:01:38 AM PST by mdmathis6 (Save the Republic! Mess with the polling firms' heads!)
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To: beyond the sea

Well of course future hurricanes will be more destructive than those in the past. We've been building on sand in coastal regions like crazy for the last couple of decades. The fact that there are more targets, means there will be more destruction!


17 posted on 11/27/2006 4:04:42 AM PST by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: abb

LOL ..... somehow I doubt it.


18 posted on 11/27/2006 4:24:36 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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To: Strategerist
there actually weren't any seasonal predictions such as the article claims. Most predicted an above-average year in terms of activity; nobody predicted a record-breaking year or a year with activity even approaching 2005.

Yes they did.... when and if I have time, I will prove it.

19 posted on 11/27/2006 4:26:34 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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To: mdmathis6
LOL....... they really can't make up their minds about those sorts of things!

LOL....... more clouds, more carbon dioxide, more dust, they're all basically guessing.

20 posted on 11/27/2006 4:28:16 AM PST by beyond the sea ( Whiskey For My Men, Beer For My Horses)
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