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Larry Sabato: Election Eve 2006 (THE FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Larry J. Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics ^ | 11-6-06 | Larry Sabato

Posted on 11/06/2006 8:48:16 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative

November 6, 2006

Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS

Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman
U.Va. Center for Politics

NOTE: Races we consider "Late Breakers"--those in which we have changed our outlook or prediction since Thursday--are denoted by arrows identifying the direction of momentum. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.

Dear loyal readers,

What a wild ride it's been! As the midterm madness of 2006 draws to a close, the Crystal Ball is reminded just how quickly the facts of our politics can change.

Just last year, we and many others wrote in awe of the 21st Century structural obstacles Democrats faced in putting a sizeable number of GOP-held seats in play. We even speculated that "an entrenched lack of competition may be all the anti-itch medication the GOP needs" to preserve congressional majorities. These days, of course, everyone is singing a much different tune.

This year's "sixth year itch" election has had its share of rollercoaster-worthy twists and turns, and overall, Republican fortunes have followed a gradually downward trajectory. Competition has expanded rapidly, even into the eleventh hour. For us, it's this volatility that has made the 2006 midterm cycle both fun to watch and difficult to gauge.

With one day to go, the situation is still very fluid. This weekend, we had a potentially pro-GOP event, the sentencing of Saddam Hussein, and a potentially pro-Democratic event, the unveiling of Rev. Ted Haggard's family values hypocrisy. The Crystal Ball's initial guess was that both news headlines, while attention-grabbing, would have only a marginal impact on the vote (and it's also worth noting that a record percentage of voters will have voted early this year, softening any impact of the last-minute headlines).

Yet something is happening. Both the Washington Post/ABC News poll and the new Pew survey show a dramatic tightening of the generic ballot vote, with Democrats leading by 4 to 6 percent. If these polls are accurate, this is bad news for Democrats, and they suggest that Democratic gains might be more limited than have been widely expected. Perhaps the Republican vote is finally coming home--much later than usual. President Bush's campaigning in red territory and the GOP's smart get-out-the-vote operation may be working at last. We will know tomorrow night.

For many a political practitioner, Election Eve is when pure nerves take over. Most of the hard work has already been done, and nearly every vote decided. Surely many Democrats will go to sleep tonight sensing the same giddy anticipation felt on Christmas Eve, with dreams of congressional majorities dancing in their heads and electoral goodies stuffed in stockings. Surely many in the GOP will go to bed dreaming that Democrats' gifts will be few and far between tomorrow--and that the "gifts" are mainly coal and switches!

Although we're not out to determine who's been naughty or nice (believe us, that's a subject for many other Crystal Ball emails--and both parties have their fair share of people on both lists), we did make a list of predictions on Thursday, and we promised we would check it twice. The result of our re-checking is a last-minute batch of ratings changes, and even several changes of our predictions.

So thanks for staying with us this election year--now fasten your seat belts and hang on for the ride as the Crystal Ball calls 'em all!

Our best Election Day wishes to all of you,

The Crystal Ball Team

THE SENATE: +6 Dems = 51D, 49R

Despite hard-fought campaigning in every battleground state up until the very end, the overall Senate picture has not changed much since our Thursday assessment. The Crystal Ball still sees 4, 5 or 6 seats going to the Democrats, resting party control of the Senate squarely on the edge of the butter knife.

The Democrats must win all the close ones and capture all the toss-ups to gain control, which is very tough to do. The safe bet is that Democrats will gain no more than five seats, and thus the GOP will remain in charge by a fingernail of the upper chamber of Congress. But what the heck? We'll live dangerously. We think the Democrats may replicate their feat from 1986 (the sixth year election of Ronald Reagan's Presidency) and capture just enough seats to take over. This is our least confident prediction. We believe the Democrats have excellent chances to win the House and take a majority of the Governorships, while a thin Senate majority has odds no better than 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent.

Contests remain extremely close in the "Threshold Three"--Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia--with close races still possible in Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, where Democrats hold narrow leads. Our outlooks have not changed, save to tilt Tennessee towards the Republicans. When we add together all our predictions, Democrats pick up six seats, sufficient to wrest control from the GOP. Here our our final picks:

Final Senate Predictions

Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)

Solid R (7) Likely R (0) Leans R (2) R Toss-up (0) D Toss-up (2) Leans D (2) Likely D (1) Solid D (1)

IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MT (Burns) OH (DeWine) PA (Santorum)

ME (Snowe) TN (OPEN) MO (Talent) RI (Chafee)

MS (Lott)

NV (Ensign)

TX (Hutchison)

UT (Hatch)

WY (Thomas)

WV (Byrd)

WI (Kohl)

NY (Clinton)

NM (Bingaman)

ND (Conrad)

MA (Kennedy)

HI (Akaka)

FL (Nelson)

WA (Cantwell) DE (Carper)

NE (Nelson) CT (Lieberman*)

MN (OPEN) VT (OPEN)

NJ (Menendez) MD (OPEN) MI (Stabenow) CA (Feinstein)

Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) R Toss-up (0) D Toss-up (1) Leans D (1) Likely D (4) Solid D (12)

Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 18 (out of 45 held)

The Brutal B - November 6, 2006: +4 to +6 D

Click here for individual Senate race analysis.

THE HOUSE: +29 Dems = 232D, 203R

We admit: the Crystal Ball approaches the task of predicting the range of Democratic gains in the House with some anxiety. Politically, the House has always been the more volatile chamber of Congress this year; it has been the locus of far more scandal, and as always, there are more than ten times as many seats up for grabs in the House than there are in the Senate. In a "wave" election year, House races often surprise even the most astute observers by sneaking up into competition under the radar screen close to Election Day.

Even since we last published on Thursday, our list of late breaking races has grown much longer, and most of the shifts we have seen have favored the party out of power. Many of these contests emerged as horse races too late for the major parties to compete dollar-for-dollar in the districts at stake, and many are in such deeply red territory that they might not be good long-term investments for Democrats anyway. The Democratic thinking goes: "if we're headed for a majority, why play in states like Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, or Wyoming only to lose the seats in a less favorable political environment two years later?" Still, we'll bet outcomes in one or two of these places will surprise us. For Democrats, will these "late breakers" prove heartbreakers or supermajority-makers? It's anyone's guess, and we'll only know after the polls close.

The Crystal Ball believes that Democrats will likely win more than enough races to take control (+25 to 33), and could see even larger gains if a large wave crashes even deeply red territory. By the same token, Democrats may end up leaving several of their 2nd or 3rd tier candidates stranded on 2nd or 3rd base with 47 or 48 percent of the vote on Election Night. We are betting that the toss-ups split evenly between the parties, 18 apiece. When we add up all of our predictions, Democrats gain 29 seats in the House to command the same size majority the GOP currently holds, 232-203. Here are our final picks, with our "late breakers" first:

Final House Predictions: The 20 Late Breakers

Republican Held Seats in Play: 70 (162 Safe/Solid R)

Likely R (10) Leans R (13) R Toss-up (18) D Toss-up (17) Leans D (9) Likely D (3)
CO-06 (Tancredo) CA-04 (Doolittle) AZ-01 (Renzi) AZ-05 (Hayworth) FL-13 (OPEN) AZ-08 (OPEN)
FL-08 (Keller) CA-50 (Bilbray) KS-02 (Ryun) CA-11 (Pombo) IN-02 (Chocola) CO-07 (OPEN)
FL-09 (OPEN) CO-05 (OPEN) KY-03 (Northup) CO-04 (Musgrave) IA-01 (OPEN) IN-08 (Hostettler)
IN-03 (Souder) IL-10 (Kirk) MN-01 (Gutknecht) CT-02 (Simmons) NY-24 (OPEN)
MI-07 (OPEN) IA-02 (Leach) MN-06 (OPEN) CT-04 (Shays) NC-11 (Taylor)
MN-02 (Kline) KY-02 (Lewis) NE-03 (OPEN) CT-05 (Johnson) OH-18 (OPEN)
NH-01 (Bradley) NV-02 (OPEN) NV-03 (Porter) FL-16 (OPEN) PA-06 (Gerlach)
NY-03 (King) NJ-07 (Ferguson) NY-19 (Kelly) FL-22 (Shaw) PA-07 (Weldon)
OH-12 (Tiberi) NY-29 (Kuhl) NY-25 (Walsh) ID-01 (OPEN) PA-10 (Sherwood)
WV-02 (Capito) NC-08 (Hayes) NY-26 (Reynolds) IL-06 (OPEN)
VA-10 (Wolf) OH-01 (Chabot) IN-09 (Sodrel)
TX-23 (Bonilla) OH-02 (Schmidt) KY-04 (Davis)
WA-05 (McMorris) PA-04 (Hart) NH-02 (Bass)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) NM-01 (Wilson)
VA-02 (Drake) NY-20 (Sweeney)

WA-08 (Reichert) OH-15 (Pryce)
WI-08 (OPEN) TX-22 (OPEN)

WY-AL (Cubin)

WV-01 (Mollohan)
VT-AL (OPEN)
TX-17 (Edwards)
IA-03 (Boswell) OH-06 (OPEN)
IL-08 (Bean) LA-03 (Melancon)
GA-12 (Barrow) GA-08 (Marshall) IN-07 (Carson)
Likely R (0) Leans R (0) R Toss-up (0) D Toss-up (1) Leans D (3) Likely D (6)

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 10 (193 Safe/Solid D)

The Brutal B - November 6, 2006: +25 to +33 D

Click here for individual House race analysis.

THE GOVERNORSHIPS: +7 Dems = 29D, 21R

The Crystal Ball continues that Democrats will easily claim a majority of the statehouses after the votes are counted, moving from 22 today to 28-30. Although we could be surprised elsewhere, the gubernatorial race that we are most torn about is Minnesota's, where we are calling it for the Democrat simply because of the state's strong Democratic tide.

Note that the endangered Democratic incumbent governors may all win--not because they are strong, but because the GOP is so weak this year (think Michigan, Oregon, Maine, Wisconsin, and Illinois). Also keep in mind that even strong GOP governors may lose simply because of the R next to their name (think Maryland and Minnesota). Here are our final picks:

Final Governor Predictions

Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)

Solid R (6) Likely R (4) Leans R (4) R Toss-up (2) D Toss-up (0) Leans D (1) Likely D (4) Solid D (1)

CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MN (Pawlenty) MD (Ehrlich) AR (OPEN) NY (OPEN)

HI (Lingle) CA (Schwarzenegger) FL (OPEN) ID (OPEN) CO (OPEN)

NE (Heineman) GA (Perdue) NV (OPEN) MA (OPEN)

SD (Rounds) SC (Sanford) RI (Carcieri) OH (OPEN)

VT (Douglas)

TX (Perry)

WY (Freudenthal)

TN (Bredesen)

WI (Doyle) PA (Rendell)

MI (Granholm) OK (Henry)

ME (Baldacci) NM (Richardson)

IA (OPEN) NH (Lynch)

OR (Kulongoski) IL (Blagojevich) KS (Sebelius) AZ (Napolitano)

Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) R Toss-up (0) D Toss-up (1) Leans D (5) Likely D (1) Solid D (7)

Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held)

The Brutal B - November 6, 2006: +6 to +8 D

Click here for individual Governor race analysis.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004moonbatpoll; 2006moonbatpoll; bbcprediction; moonbat
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1 posted on 11/06/2006 8:48:26 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
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To: GraniteStateConservative

Yawn, why hould anyone listen to a person, who doesn't have the sense to get a natural looking hair rug.


2 posted on 11/06/2006 8:49:53 AM PST by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

sorry, but ever since he said that George Allen said the N word I totally discount him as a loser and a lib.


3 posted on 11/06/2006 8:50:03 AM PST by spacejunkie
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To: GraniteStateConservative

Wishful thinking, once again, by Larry Sabato. All the close Senate races except Tennessee break for the Dems? I don't think so.


4 posted on 11/06/2006 8:50:34 AM PST by Coop (FR = a lotta talk, but little action)
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To: Dane

Hey, don't make fun of his shag carpet!


5 posted on 11/06/2006 8:51:44 AM PST by tgusa (Gun control: deep breath, sight alignment, squeeze the trigger .....)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

Larry who?


6 posted on 11/06/2006 8:52:37 AM PST by bmwcyle (Only stupid people would vote for McCain, Warner, Hagle, Snowe, Graham, or any RINO)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

His "final" predictions four days ago (for comparison)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1730820/posts

Also for comparison: his predictions for the last midterm...
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:5CkQhvTEYcMJ:www.pkblogs.com/quasipundit/2002_11_03_quasipundit_archive.html+2002+sabato+results+%22house+seats%22+republicans+-2006&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=7

"Sabato has gone from +1 Democrat in the Senate to no change. Thanks to Dodd's post for pointing that out. Sabato also went from +3 Republicans in the House to +4. As close as this election is, those "tweaks" are epocal."

The actual results were:
+2 Republicans in the Senate
+6 Republicans in the House


So his average error was about 100%

No surprise these predictions are no longer on his site LOL!


7 posted on 11/06/2006 8:53:13 AM PST by mrsmith
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To: Coop
And like so many dem pollsters I've seen today, the RATS miraculously pick up exactly 6 seats. Precisely the number needed for a majority. This is laughable.
8 posted on 11/06/2006 8:55:12 AM PST by A Citizen Reporter (Sign at World Series in St. Louis, October 27, 2006 "The Experts are Idiots")
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To: GraniteStateConservative

Blah...blah...blah.


9 posted on 11/06/2006 8:55:31 AM PST by MisterRepublican
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To: bmwcyle
Hey, everybody knows Larry. He's the guy at the Interstate rest stop on I-66 in Manassas, VA.

Never believe how he does sampling or who he questions about political leanings.

10 posted on 11/06/2006 8:55:36 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: Coop
Either he is a stupid man or he hasn't seen all the latest polls. Even Santorum is now within 4. I believe that is also the margin for error.

The liberals are already wondering what happened to their MSM early polls.

11 posted on 11/06/2006 8:56:27 AM PST by 1035rep
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To: tgusa
Hey, don't make fun of his shag carpet!

Ya know after Larry Sabato is proven wrong once again, maybe we all should pitch in and buy him a subscrition to Hair Club For Men, even though he probably makes big bucks being the liberal media political analyst darling.

12 posted on 11/06/2006 8:56:48 AM PST by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

No one has discreditted himself more in this election than Sabito.


13 posted on 11/06/2006 8:57:08 AM PST by JLS
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To: GraniteStateConservative
If these chuckle-heads are as wrong as I think they be tomorrow, who the heck in there right mind in the 08' election cycle would hire them?

Maybe only delusional Dem's kind of like those would go visit the like of :

"I took my troubles down to Madame Rue, You know that gypsy with the gold-capped tooth" or so the song goes....

14 posted on 11/06/2006 8:58:57 AM PST by taildragger
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To: muawiyah

I don't take him seriously but I wanted to bookmark his predictions as a reminder of what a fool he is.


15 posted on 11/06/2006 8:59:03 AM PST by 1035rep
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To: A Citizen Reporter

I mean, it is mathematically possible. But it's just not very feasible. I still have six or seven races that could certainly go either way, and all but MD are GOP seats. (Sorry, I just don't like the GOP's chances in NJ.) But in all those races, the GOP incumbent has a significant fundraising advantage (excluding Santorum - even, and Chafee - opponent has over twice as much). And Steele has about a half million more than Cardin.


16 posted on 11/06/2006 9:00:41 AM PST by Coop (FR = a lotta talk, but little action)
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To: GraniteStateConservative; nutmeg
This guy is smoking crack, there is no way all three Republican incumbents (House) will lose.
I predict they will retain 2 of the 3 seats.
17 posted on 11/06/2006 9:01:51 AM PST by #1CTYankee (That's right, I have no proof. So what of it??)
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To: GraniteStateConservative
This is a joke:

Tennessee - Toss-up - Bob Corker (R) will defeat Harold Ford (D).

Toss-up? Corker has been pulling well away from Ford the last week or so. Sabato is blowing smoke here - painting a best-case picture for the Dems.

18 posted on 11/06/2006 9:02:28 AM PST by dirtboy (John Kerry - the world's only re-usable political suicide bomber.)
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To: GraniteStateConservative
The word "bollocks" springs to mind.

Regards, Ivan

19 posted on 11/06/2006 9:03:37 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

Sabato revealed his true colors this election and he's nothing but a left wing activist. His prediction for a close race in VA-02 proves that he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about.


20 posted on 11/06/2006 9:04:02 AM PST by pgkdan
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