Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
"the Repubs better start learning how to use conservative principles to govern competently"
Incompetent Democrats breed mediocre Republicans, and are a large part of the problem with governing...
A reasonably competent Dem Party would force Republicans to Govern from a Conservative viewpoint, instead of constantly pandering to the middle...
But as Dean and the Overseas Socialist cash drives Dems farther and farther to the edge of political obscurity, we are in NO DANGER of that happening, are we??
***I've noticed something very strange about the "Republican" respondents in these polls. When asked who they trust more on taxes, the respondents say "democrats."
That doesn't make sense. If they were Republicans, they wouldn't want higher taxes.***
I trust the Democrats more on taxes, too. I trust they *will* raise them.
Ohio's getting close to that point, I fear. What saves us here is Cincinnati remains very conservative for a major urban area. Plus none of our cities are as big as Philly.
Because many voters are stupid, to be blunt.
Only in your bizarre universe is gay marriage congruent with conservative principles.
True conservatives know better than to remake the traditional marriage and families into liberal social experiments.
I once saw a bumper sticker that had Democrat jackass logos all around the perimeter and it said "I'm Stupid, and I Vote"
(the rest of the car was covered in pro-GOP and conservative stuff...)
Why can't we give Philly to New Jersey and Pittsburgh to Ohio? Then we would have the perfect state.
Because there's no need to taint contributions to FR with aggrandizement of your shabby anti-conservative pessimism.
I don't buy that they have written him off as they are still advertising heavily. However, so is Corker, thankfully. And while they may or may not have written him off, Ford is finished in Tennessee. He will lose by 5-7%.
Ahhhhh. He's one of them.
Baloney. Chafee will never caucus with the DemonRATs. He might vote with them on many issues, but he is a Republican.
I don't WANT Pittsburgh!! I wanted to give Cleveland and Toledo to Michigan!
ROFL!
You have my sympathies.
Committee assignments are up to the parties' leaders in the next Congress. That a senator continues on the same committees is not guaranteed.
The split between the parties is roughly proportional. So, unless control flips to the Dems. the committe will likely have the same number of Republicans as before.
"Accuse?"
Of what?
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