You well know, that the partisan dynamics, drives votes.
Your senate predictions are reasonably sensible, except for Chafee. His only hope, is if voters think the GOP has a lock on the Senate. If they don't, he's toast, because RI does not want Chafee to get in the way of Dem control. That is the BIG issue in RI. Burns is such a rube, but Tester is an out of the closet liberal, in a state that leans GOP. I have this feeling that Talent will lose. He's a bit too stiff. But then he was a big firm corporate lawyer. Stem cells will indeed hurt him. Boomers as you know want to live forever, and ever, and tend to be in love with that lottery ticket. Granted, the narcissists are thinner on the ground in Missouri than California, but whatever.
Chafees numbers are artificially low, methinks folks like me will end up voting for him when they walk in the booth. We'll see. I know it is counter intuitive and flies in the face of the data but there you have it anyway sensei.