[GodGunsGuts]

ping

[GOPJ]

My local paper - the St. Pete Times ran an article saying "Home sales" Relax, the sky may not be falling after all" It looks like the gloom and domm folks are wrong once again...

[proxy_user]

"The total value of residential property in developed countries rose by more than $30 trillion, to $70 trillion, over the past five years – eclipsing the combined GDPs of those nations.

So the total value of housing is greater than total annual income? There may or may not be a bubble, but even in normal circumstances I would expect that to be the case.

[RightWhale]

Newsletters quoting each other doesn't mean the MSM is any better or worse. What's the worst than can happen in an economic system with nothing but positive feedback. Make an essay out of it, or find a negative feedback loop someplace and moderate the worst case scenario in a slightly less dark essay. The career writing possibilities are unlimited.

[MNJohnnie]

So this guy has made a small fortune NEVER actually doing anything other then running around like Chicken Little screaming "The Sky is Falling".

A fool and his money......

*****Snip******


Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter publishing companies, and the author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.

Bill Bonner's passion for international travel and big ideas is reflected in the company he's successfully built. In 1979, he began publishing International Living and Hulbert's Financial Digest. Since then, Agora has grown to include dozens of newsletters focusing on finance, health and travel. Since the early 1990s, Bill Bonner has vigorously expanded from Agora's home base in Baltimore, opening offices in London, Paris, Bonn, Waterford, Ireland, and Johannesburg, South Africa.

Agora's publication subsidiaries include Pickering & Chatto, a prestigious academic press in London, and Les Belles Lettres in Paris, best known as a publisher of classical literature.

Bill Bonner is the author, with Addison Wiggin, of the New York Times Business best sellers:

[nmh]

This is NOT good news:

23 percent of all American houses bought last year were for investment and in Miami, one speculation hot spot, 70% of condo buyers are investors/speculators.

Last year, 42 percent of America's first-time buyers – and 25 percent of all buyers – put no money down.

In California, 60 percent of all new mortgages this year are interest-only or negative-amortization.

[AZLiberty]

When immigration stops pumping air into the bubble, the bubble will collapse.

I'm down to the last chapter of Steyn's new book. I usually get my books from the great public libraries in the Phoenix area, but I more than owed it to Steyn to buy this one. And it's well worth it. It should be a solstice gift to all my liberal friends.

Steyn's catalog of population deflation among Western countries is stunning. The fertile Red States in the U.S. -- together with immigration -- are keeping us afloat, but if we depended on the Blue States, we'd be going down the toilet with Germany and others -- with Islam pulling the handle. It will be cheap to buy some retirement property in Europe, but you may lose your head to your neighbors.

[palmer]

prices in Florida, California, Nevada, Hawaii, Maryland and Washington, DC, rising more than 20 percent,

First, the statistic is probably wrong and certainly misleading. Prices around DC in the past year have varied from about steady to as much as 30% off. Second, buyers are coming back as interest rates dropped since the summer. Offers are coming in at or close to asking prices where the asking prices are realistic (reflecting the declines I mentioned). Third, anybody who is waiting around thinking they will get some bargain real estate at giveaway prices should move to rural North Dakota because that's where the bargains are right now.

Even in this area (No. VA), desirable properties are not coming on the market at any price. I was lucky to pick up a riverfront property at about 20% off the peak price because the owners are doom and gloomers or need the money. I don't expect it go up, I'm ready for it to drop some more, but the important thing is that I got it.

[Balding_Eagle]

That it will blow up catastrophically is a fair bet,

Oh man, and I'm just sinking a bunch of money in a spec house.

I'm DOOMED!, DOOMED I tell ya.

[stylin19a]

in the early 80's, i got a VA loan for 12.5% fixed, no money down ( 2 points up front to the VA for fees) on 78k.

The mortgage P&I and insurance etc was 3 times what I had been previously paying in rent. I was makin 20k a year, my wife was making about 5k a year.

ARMS, at the time were just coming into the daylight.
What's worse ? 0% interest or 12.5% interest ?

The point ? the sky didn't fall !

[Moonman62]

That it will blow up catastrophically is a fair bet, warns The Daily Reckoning's Bill Bonner.

I think the day of reckoning is to be a one shot deal, when the value of real estate or gold will not matter.

[EGPWS]

That the US housing bubble will disappear someday is a certainty. That it will blow up catastrophically is a fair bet, warns The Daily Reckoning's Bill Bonner.

Bill Bonner must be a conservative to appear so optimistic. /s

He sounds like one of those who would drink kool aid because someone prophesied the end of the world.

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

should I actually listen to anyone from a organization called "Daily Reckoning"????

[ex-Texan]

With all those ARM loans, no money down deals and interest only loans in the past three years -- there will be hell to pay. Did you hear about the 24 year old real estate guru who now has over $ 2.2 million in real estate? He is facing foreclosure on five homes. He bought some sight unseen in other states with other peoples' money. But wait! He started a blog and was able to borrow some more money. He is looking to get another bite at the big apple. From rags to real estate riches in just a few weeks. Nothing to see here. It's just play money. Playing monopoly with little plastic houses was never this easy.

Video: Foreclosures Spike in California

P.S. He may still contact that possee. I hear they are still putting together ponzi deals in Pittsburgh.

[N3WBI3]

I intentionally bought well below my means because losing 10% on a 130K home is a lot better than 10% on 500K. This way I can save money for a bargain *if* the market implodes. The one thing which really worries me is the rent to ownership cost ratio where I live its a real sign of an unhealthy market.

[dakine]

"Consumer spending and residential construction have accounted for 90 percent of the total growth in the American GDP over the last four years,"

Ok, how does that compare to some other four year period? How much of each of the two?

But who I am, nothing to see here, believe all the quotes that fit your agenda....

[montag813]

In the 3rd Quarter 2006, the number of sales, price, and price per square foot of New York City condos rose unexpectedly.

[Irish Eyes]

Just got a sales flyer on the door about a house just down the street fom me. Great house asking $50,00 below appraisal. (Phoenix, Az)

[SuziQ]

Do these folks really think hat all housing will just stop being built when this housing correction has run it's course? We've been through at least two of these corrections in the last 20 years, and houses have been continuing to be built. Folks worry about a glut in the market , so housing slows down. Then folks decided to start buying again, and off they go.

No need for any wrist slashing.

[HereInTheHeartland]

Hate to burst their bubble, but our market has already turned.

Big builders had stopped new construction earlier in year; now over supply is shrinking and getting back in balance. Home are moving much faster in the last 2 weeks. Lower interest rates and increased confidence with lower fuel prices are a big plus.