Posted on 10/14/2006 9:48:44 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
'The US housing bubble will disappear'
By Laurie Osborne, Editor
Published 11th Sep 2006
That the US housing bubble will disappear someday is a certainty. That it will blow up catastrophically is a fair bet, warns The Daily Reckoning's Bill Bonner.
Observing recent statistics, Bonner calls the evidence "formidable".
The total value of residential property in developed countries rose by more than $30 trillion, to $70 trillion, over the past five years – eclipsing the combined GDPs of those nations.
Consumer spending and residential construction have accounted for 90 percent of the total growth in the American GDP over the last four years, and more than 40 percent of all private-sector jobs created since 2001 have been in housing-related sectors, including construction and mortgage brokering.
America made some of its biggest gains this past year, with average prices of homes rising 12.5% in the year and prices in Florida, California, Nevada, Hawaii, Maryland and Washington, DC, rising more than 20 percent, while in Palm Beach County, Florida, it rose over 35%. Sales of existing homes in the US set a new high at 7.18 million in April.
Some foreign countries showed bigger gains than the US in the last year, with prices up by 23.6 percent in South Africa, 19 percent in Hong Kong and over 15 percent in Spain and France. But average house prices have actually fallen by 7% in Australia since 2003; Sydney's bubblicious prices have plunged by 16%. In Britain, sales have contracted by a third from last year and have also slowed down in Ireland, the Netherlands and New Zealand. In Britain and Australia, these declines followed what were only very modest interest rate increases.
23 percent of all American houses bought last year were for investment and in Miami, one speculation hot spot, 70% of condo buyers are investors/speculators.
Last year, 42 percent of America's first-time buyers – and 25 percent of all buyers – put no money down.
In California, 60 percent of all new mortgages this year are interest-only or negative-amortization.
House prices in relation to rent have hit all-time highs in the US, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium. In the US, the ratio is 35 percent above its 1975-2000 average. The price to rent ratio is a cardinal indicator of over valuation.
The difference between the housing market and the stock market is a big thing these doomsayers miss.
We can live without owning stock.
It gets really uncomfortable living without a house. And that is why they are full of it.
Just commenting on what I see to be bad news:
23 percent of all American houses bought last year were for investment and in Miami, one speculation hot spot, 70% of condo buyers are investors/speculators.
Last year, 42 percent of America's first-time buyers – and 25 percent of all buyers – put no money down.
In California, 60 percent of all new mortgages this year are interest-only or negative-amortization.
I know, I'm supposed to spin it in a positive way. I don't. The facts speak for themselves.
"Why do you have to be so negative? Don't you know that the time to take out an ARM and buy real estate is now!"
Aboslutely!!!!! In fact add to these percentages:
(Why limit yourself to ARM's ?)
Last year, 42 percent of America's first-time buyers – and 25 percent of all buyers – put no money down.
In California, 60 percent of all new mortgages this year are interest-only or negative-amortization.
Yup, that's the way to go ... LOL!!!
Just make sure your spec house isn't one of 10,000 just like it on 1/4 acre with many acres of undeveloped land around it. I am thinking of Loudoun and Prince William counties around here. But even if you do that it just means you might have up to 10 years of price stagnation as the land gets used up. The other advantage is you will have 10 years living in a nice house while ex-tex and the rest stay in their trailers waiting in vain for the giveaways.
Yeah, but you can hardly pimp gold with a message like that.
After all, even idiotic sucker bets are "fair."
in the early 80's, i got a VA loan for 12.5% fixed, no money down ( 2 points up front to the VA for fees) on 78k.
The mortgage P&I and insurance etc was 3 times what I had been previously paying in rent. I was makin 20k a year, my wife was making about 5k a year.
ARMS, at the time were just coming into the daylight.
What's worse ? 0% interest or 12.5% interest ?
The point ? the sky didn't fall !
I had to stop buying gold and silver so I would have enough paper money for my downpayment. I am negative on all currencies (dollar, euro, yen, etc) in the long run, but still don't have more than 10% or so in precious metals. But I also have to admit about 25-30% of my retirement is in metals, energy, etc.
There's no need to bring up gold...you always do it for me. LOL!
I think the day of reckoning is to be a one shot deal, when the value of real estate or gold will not matter.
Investing in gold is one thing.
Daily gloomwhoring spam that pimps gold is quite another.
The Daily reckoning is always bearish and against the United States. The main writer also lives in France if that tells you something
Bill Bonner must be a conservative to appear so optimistic. /s
He sounds like one of those who would drink kool aid because someone prophesied the end of the world.
should I actually listen to anyone from a organization called "Daily Reckoning"????
You are a very wise man. Keep holding on to your gold, it will be blasting off on in its next leg up in short order.
Miami is a nortriously erratic market.
I remember in 1978-80 Condos in MIA going for $100,000+. By 1982 those same units were selling for $65,000.....been there before.
Video: Foreclosures Spike in California
P.S. He may still contact that possee. I hear they are still putting together ponzi deals in Pittsburgh.
Gee.
The rest of the country is apples, California is oranges.
That attitude is de rigeur for the fear lobby on FR.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.