Wages of Stagnation

www.townhall.com ^ | Tuesday, September 26, 2006 | By Bruce Bartlett

[El Cid]

Re Post 66
I agree with you. I think that there is a cyclical component to wages -- albeit with a slight upward trend to the right (at least for a healthy economy). I didn't realize Bartlett had an axe to grind against Bush. I've never heard of him. Funny that he didn't pick Clinton's last day in office (January 2001). Picking a peak number for wages prior to a nasty recession, and then proclaiming puzzlement as to why people aren't upset with this 'stagnation' is just a load of malarky on Bartlett's part.

[oceanview]

so we can only accept what the BLS tells us, so long as they dare not be forward looking.

young people entering college now - need exactly this kind of forward looking information to make career decisions.

[Nowhere Man]

Get any job in the country, show up and do your best for 7 years, and your wages will likely double or more in that time.

I one thought that too.

Me three. I'm about at the same spot, maybe just a tad above where I was in 1994/95 right now.

[Nowhere Man]

Yes, and some think they can pass out tax cuts and put the difference between revenue and expenditures on the national credit card.

I'd gladly give it back and even go for the revocation of the tax cut if it would mean closing the borders but that is another issue entirely.

[Nowhere Man]

sure, there is a "bubble" out there of americans entering retirement now, who worked when wages and pensions were "fat" in the US, and those well heeled seniors are living it up. but right behind them, we have a demographic time bomb headed towards retirement. a time bomb of corporate workers who are seeing pension and retirement benefits stripped away by US corporations at an alarming rate (I am one of them), and who are not going to have anywhere near the retirement experience of americans who are current 60+ years of age. I'll be lucky to avoid working at McDonalds in my "golden years" at the rate I'm going.

I'm 40, I'll have to work until I croak.

[oceanview]

switch to a government job, its about the only safe path now to a decent retirement package. and young people are starting to realize that - I have never heard so many young people tell me that want to work for government. they see their parents getting beat up in the private sector - hours worked, benefits slowly trimmed away, always tied to a cell phone even during "off hours" - and alot of them are wondering whether its worth it.

[1rudeboy]

"Forward looking information?" Don't make me laugh. I can see it now:

college-bound senior enters Guidance Office at Doom H.S.
Examining Magistrate, dressed in black, briefly looks up and resumes reading a file [obscure Kafka reference]

"It has come to my attention, K., that you wish to go to college."
"Yes, sir." [nervously]
"I'll have you know, K., that the BLS has determined that 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations between 2004 and 2014 do not require a four-year degree, and four of these call for no academic degree at all. Of course I know nothing of any fast growing occupations that require a four-year degree. You are expected to take your life at once. Use this gun."

[1rudeboy]

ping

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

Since when does a prediction count as fact?

If it's a prediction that supports your premise, it's a fact.

If it's a fact that doesn't support your premise, it's obviously DA MAN conspiring to keep you down.

[Toddsterpatriot]

I don't care what your government pushed statistics say.

At first, I thought this was a hedgetrimmer response. LOL!

[oceanview]

they had best do some planning, before then incur $100K in debt for a degree that can't get them a decent job, and end up working in a job they could have had, without the degree and the debt.

[1rudeboy]

I agree. That's why engineering is the best bet, not gender studies.

[Toddsterpatriot]

those numbers don't mean much unless you also take into account the # of positions available.

Did you understand what he posted? Average starting salaries for the class of 2006.

Are you claiming that say 100,000 engineers graduated but only 1,000 got jobs? So the salary numbers posted don't count? Because such a huge oversupply of graduates versus jobs wouldn't push the salaries for grads lower?

Is that really what you think?

[oceanview]

you think so.

well, I can tell you that I know a guy I went to high school with. no college (perhaps some community college). got a job working in the hotel industry in manhattan. worked his way up, I am sure he had some "menial" jobs along the way - front desk, food service, bellhop, who knows. today, he's a conceirge at a top NYC hotel - makes about $90K a year. $90K to make dinner reservations and book theatre tickets - not a bad gig.

there are good jobs in the service industry to be sure, but as I tell young people - pick your spots. get a job providing service to wealthy people, you'll make better pay. want to work in the travel and leisure industry, don't think red roof inn, think ritz carlton. want to sell or service cars, think BMW and not Chevy.

[oceanview]

the average salary number only has meaning in the context of the number of jobs available. that's why I used the NBA analogy - NBA average salaries are very high. who cares?

[Toddsterpatriot]

the average salary number only has meaning in the context of the number of jobs available.

So only a tiny fraction of engineering grads got jobs? And starting salaries were still that high?

[oceanview]

I wouldn't use the word "tiny". but first in line are people with experience, then the H1Bs, and finally the college newbies. and the other pheonmena I see at work - people who retire, are not replaced. they are oursourced/offshored instead. that's the most convenient time to do it, someone retires, no entry level person need be hired to replace them. its much less messy to not have to fire someone.

[hedgetrimmer]

Here's more

[Nowhere Man]

switch to a government job, its about the only safe path now to a decent retirement package. and young people are starting to realize that - I have never heard so many young people tell me that want to work for government. they see their parents getting beat up in the private sector - hours worked, benefits slowly trimmed away, always tied to a cell phone even during "off hours" - and alot of them are wondering whether its worth it.

Well, it seems to be going that way, work for the government, at least they still have good benefits and decent pay. At one time, government workers were not paid as much, heck, I remember there was a department store that cater to them, GEMCO (Govermnent Employees Market COmpany), my aunt and uncle were meember down in Texas. I don't know how, my uncle drove a truck for Schlitz beer unless it was due to his former military service, he was a paratrooper in the Korean War.

I rmemeber when I had my left hand cut open, it got infected with strep and had to have surgery to clean it out. I could have lost all of it or part of it but I still have it all, albiet some nerve damage. I was CIO of a small startup then (2002/2003) and my boss called me on my cellphone (Mom had it with her, she was with me in hospital) asking how to boot up the server and I was only 20 minutes out of the surgery room from my operation. I was coherent but still very fuzzy from it all.

About working for the government, sometimes if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. B-) B-P I'm afraid that is reality, if you want your piece of the pie. It is like Rodney Dangerfield explained to the business teacher at college where he went "Back To School," you got to bribe the councilman, pay the plumber extra, play nice with the union, and so on. B-)

[Nowhere Man]

they had best do some planning, before then incur $100K in debt for a degree that can't get them a decent job, and end up working in a job they could have had, without the degree and the debt.

Although this does not address this problem, there are times I think one should not really go to college right after high school right away, maybe take a year or two off and work for a while or go into the military. That way, most might not see it as an extension of high school and such.