Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
You're not drinking enough RNC Kool-Aid.
I once heard a "moderate" Republican say he was reluctantly voting to reelect Jesse Helms for the identical reason that you give here for holding on to the awful Chafee. Maybe JFK was right when he said "sometimes party loyalty asks too much."
Politics is a contact blood sport. There are ways to handle RINOs in the party! Put 'em on crap committees or cut some of their pork projects when that time rolls around. All kinds of ways to twist arms and smack 'em around. But there must exist the will inside the part to DO that. That's why the bullies are called the "party whip." Spare the rod, spoil the pol.
Name calling just indicates the lack of substance in your argument. You think supporters cheering when their candidate wins a primary is idiotic? Then you haven't been observing politics very closely for the past several decades, have you? It happens all the time.
As for Laffey vs. Chaffee, Link has stabbed the President in the back too many times. He is the quintessential RINO and all indications are that he is headed for a big defeat on the 12th. I will shed no tears for him. The ends do not always justify the means. Hopefully the poll numbers we're seeing are accurate and next Tuesday we'll be able to write Chaffee's political obituary. Let that be a lesson to the other RINOs out there.
By the way, I have a hard time believing that Schwarzenegger supporters did no cheering when their candidate defeated Sen. McClintock, who is a good, decent, honorable public servant.
When you win a primary, the first thing you do is not to celebrate the kicking the other guy to the curb. The first thing you do is to get his supporters to support you.
When bush beat mccain, it was a zero gloat, zero celebration zone because we needed everyone together to beat gore.
Whoever wins the RI primary will need the other guys voters to win.
That is why you don't celebrate, you dont gloat.
Save that for victories in November.
I saw both chaffee and laffey on "this week with george s."
They both did well, both were intelligent, articulate and honest.
Either one will represent RI well.
Today's reason to dump Chafee will astonish you. So far this year, the Senate has had 230 roll call votes. How did Senator Chafee vote? (Source PDF)Given how much I want to defeat Nelson, you really can't expect me to want Chafee back in the Senate either. The man is personally weird. Among other things, in 2004, he voted for George Bush Senior.
Lincoln Chafee voted with Hillary Clinton 71% of the time and with Ted Kennedy almost 72%!
How does that compare to Senator Ben Nelson, who is arguably considered the Senate's most conservative Democrat? Nelson voted with Clinton only 59% of the time and with Kennedy 54%.
BOTTOM LINE: These numbers don't make Chafee a self-described "moderate". They make him a full-blown liberal.
You asked why Primary challengers against RINO's often fare poorly....here is the perfect example:
"GOP group unleashes ads against Laffey
The Republicans Who Care Individual Fund, which counts moderates among its members and backs Sen. Lincoln Chafee, is airing ads attacking the Cranston mayor's record in the private sector.
01:00 AM EDT on Wednesday, September 6, 2006
BY KATHERINE GREGG
Journal State House Bureau
PROVIDENCE -- A group supporting moderate Republicans has entered the U.S. Senate fray with a hard-knuckled ad alleging that GOP challenger Stephen P. Laffey's last two jobs as a stockbroker "ended in disgrace" and he was sued by one former employer "for stealing confidential documents that Laffey didn't return until a judge made him."
http://www.projo.com/extra/election/content/projo_20060906_laffey6.33058d4.html
Ok but what about the club for growth attacking chaffee ?
Goose/Gander.
Bye bye, Link!
Wish it were so, but todays results are a tribute to what a million in national GOP money coupled with unlimited RINO support can do to election results in a blue state...
Right you are. Link has let the President down when he was most needed. There sure are lots of people out there who are so consumed with maintaining control of a congressional chamber that they're willing to trade anything (including their principles) to maintain it. So, in their view, we should now thump our chests and be proud, even if the foundation on which our control of the Senate is built is rotten. Must maintain control of the Senate at all costs, right? Forget about those pesky principles and integrity.
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