Frightening internal polling (House GOP to lose 30 seats?)

RedState ^ | Jul 30th, 2006 | HoosierTeacher

[rface]

Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.

It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.

One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.

Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.

Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.

Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.

Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.

Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).

"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".

[af_vet_rr]

I imagine there's something to it.....and I don't like it

There is no imagining about it - people are getting fed up with a lot of the politicians from both parties - so what if GOP incumbents lose 30 seats - I have a feeling incumbent democrats will lose seats as well.

Hell, if the democrats somehow got control of the House, President Bush might use his veto pen more than once every several years.

[uncbob]

If the GOP starts playing with the idea of raising minimum wage - then we are to know that there is some truth behind the fear of losing big in Nov.

And the dopes as usual figure it is because they aren't liberal enough

[DB]

As far as I know Bush has used only once. And that was recently...

[mrsmith]

"I heard Rush say that according to a report by Robert Novak, a Republican committee chairman had told Novak that 30 seats were in jeopardy. "

That's what I heard too.

I suspect the Chairman was Virginia RINO Tom Davis.

He's been complaining that "Club for Growth" is hurting the party by supporting conservative Republican primary challengers against RINOs.

I think this was more of that line of his.

[brytlea]

A rock and a hard place. I don't think things will be as dire as you paint, however, I do think they will be bad. On the other hand, I'm pretty tired of voting for the lesser of the evils.
The big question is, how many people feel as I do, and will we, in the end, hold our nose and vote GOP?
susie

[RFEngineer]

"Conservatives get "hosed" far worse if the crew depicted above takes the reins. I agree that the Repub party needs to move to the right, but let's not forget the differences between the parties."

Everyone gets hosed when we grow government. The growth of government is the only issue that matters.

Right now republicans and democrats are actively growing government.

[brytlea]

That makes alot of sense.
susie

[grapeape]

We moved too fast during the initial attack and left too many combatants in the rear. ie. we let too many of the Iraqi army alive. We paroled too many soldiers.. They just turned into good recruits for Syria and Iran to promote the insurgency. Every person that I have talked to that has come back from a tour has said that there is not enough soldiers there to do the job. We have insisted upon leaving Iraq as one country. It needs to be two countries and maybe even three. We have not sealed off the borders effectively enough. We have not made syria or iran pay for inserting themselves into Iraq.

[DB]

I'm in CA and the only Republican that I know of that I can not vote for is McCain. I seriously believe the man to be insane in the true sense. I can not be responsible in any way for his going to the White House.

[Vision]

Doesn't surprise me at all.

[uncbob]

Gingrich and crew "nationalized" the election, in a real way

Nope your reasons are all incorrect and this is the most incorrect one although Newt still thinks he did it. He is political boob who predicted 25 or more seats in 98 for the GOP

Bill Clinton won the house and senate for the GOP with his Gun Control--Gays in the military and abortion policies
The Gun Owners were outraged as well as the Christian Conservatives and they turned out in droves

Exit polling showed that the vast majority of voters didn't even know what Gingrich's Contract With America was

[brytlea]

Oh, I'm not even thinking of the Presidential election yet, way too soon for me! ;)
I'm thinking of my own Republican Senator (Mel Martinez). My Rep is Wexler, and no one will run against him, so I am stuck. *sigh*
susie

[bpjam]

In 1994, the Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot poll by high single digits and we won 52 seats. This poll is becoming increasingly worthless as a tool to determine who is going to win an election. Considering that only about 50 seats in the entire country could be up for grabs at any one time (barring scandal or death) it would have to be a landslide to lose 30 seats. We would basically have to lose every swing district and every open seat as well as lose some incumbents who are not viewed as being vulnerable.

I'm not happy about this upcoming election cycle because of the general conditions and the way the board sets up on this cycle. But even if you are pessimistic, we would still need some kind of incredibly huge error by the RNC (in addition to ones they have already made) AND an almost perfect storm of democratic candidates (which are already fixed now) and news cycles (which nobody knows yet). The Dems are just ripe, ripe, ripe for exploitation since their party is in such horrible disarray. The whole 'unity' thing didn't help them in 2004 and they were never more unified in their hatred of W. This time, they are purging their own 'moderates' and we should be running ads publicizing their blood-letting by the Soros types who will be turning on us shortly.

[DB]

You mean 94 right?

[RFEngineer]

"You mean that tax-cutting, pro-life, conservative-judges, strong-military, aggressive-national-defense approach? "

All that matters is the size of government. GOP is officially for big government. That is wrong. They should not expect to be re-elected with that philosophy.

If the GOP doesn't get the votes, it is a reflection of their performance and policies. Right now, I think their performance is poor on the size and scope of government. I do not think they should expect to be rewarded for poor performance.

In a democracy, you count votes, not non-votes. The GOP should give people a reason to vote for them.

[BushMeister]

The growth of government is the only issue that matters.

So, say, gun (and ammunition) rights, "hate speech" laws, immigration policy (imagine Teddy Kennedy having carte blanche), military spending, military policy and planning, sovereignty issues (U.N. tax, World Court, etc.), social issues (abortion funding, gay marriage, English as official language) etc. etc. etc. don't matter?

[KevinDavis]

Blah blah blah blah blah blah...

[bpjam]

Absolutely correct. There should be a bannishment order from the RNC for any candidate who uses the word 'comprehensive' unless they are in a state which voted for Kerry by more than 60% (and then, only in local advertising).

[KevinDavis]

No it doesn't matter cause of one issue... /s

[BushMeister]

You're both wrong. If we lose 16 or more, we lose the House.

How so? I see a current count of 231-201-1, with one of the 2 open seats (NJ) a sure loss in Nov. I'd like to believe you. If we fall to 217, we will probably lose control (down 14 from current 231).