[varina davis]

Looks like the NE U.S. might see the first big tropical storm of the season.

[Darkwolf377]

Good thing I'm on the second floor. I will have to go down to Boston harbor (one street away) and--

(rest of message washed out)

[Strategerist]

It's basically a very precautionary watch for the Cape and Nantucket and Martha's Vinyard; they're expecting it to go significantly offshore.

[Skooz]

.INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

Oh, my heavens, Buffy, it's heading straight for the yacht club.

[Political Junkie Too]

I hope the Big Dig walls hold up.

-PJ

[Momaw Nadon]

Good thing.

We really haven't had enough rain this year.

< /sar >

[steveo]

When in trouble,
when in doubt
run around and
blame Bush.

[dirtboy]

Drivers on the islands south of Cape Code, such as Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard, should avoid driving across bridges if Beryl approaches too closely, so they don't get blown off into the water.

Except for Ted Kennedy. He doesn't need help from a tropical storm to end up with his car in the drink.

[jdm]

When I was in 6th grade, we went on a field trip to all the hurricane centers in the US, and glued all the CAPS LOCK keys on their keyboards to the pressed-down position.

[Xenalyte]

So just for regional curiosity, how would y'all pronounce the storm's name?

Here in Texas, I've always heard it pronounced Burl (my great-grandmother was a Beryl), but a Yankee talk show host yesterday referred to it as "Barrel," more or less. (He's from Montana, so perhaps we can make allowances.)

[Adam-ondi-Ahman]

Where's NautiNurse when you need her (or him)?!?!?

[Izzy Dunne]

I wonder if the BIG DIG has drainage plugs...

[backhoe]

-- soon, we will control the Universe:

[RDTF]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 192048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Maldarr]

Why a warning for Boston and not for New York City ?

These storms are comming from the South and move northward-
would not the New York area be in danger first ?

[BluH2o]

Hopefully the storms arrival doesn't coincide with high tide in Buzzards Bay. Storm surge to low lying areas in upper Buzzards Bay, near the Cape Cod canal entrance, such as towns like Marion, MA, can be very damaging to properties ... more so than wind damage.

[trisham]

Oy. No more rain!

[rmlew]

It is way too early in the season for this!
With the water so hot here, the area is set up for another Long Island Express Hurricane or even a hit on New York!

[Tennessee_Bob]

It's Kennedy's fault! His massive gravity field is drawing it in!!!