Posted on 07/19/2006 2:17:01 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL GETTING STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND PARALLELS THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 390 MILES...630 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT... WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM ...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...36.3 N...73.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER STEWART
I wonder if the BIG DIG has drainage plugs...
My wife and I have a standing joke about these things. Forty years ago a friend who had endured a period of employment with GE in the Boston area told us how, while his wife was in a Boston hospital, a story about a tornado or some such in Texas came on the TV news. The nurse said "that's what those people get for living in a place like that!"
Thank you for asking that. I always thought Burl as you said, but keep hearing Barrel too....it sounds weird, and who would name a kid Barrel?
susie
Oops...Dictionary.com says the pronunciation for Beryl is basically, Barrel....
susie
My husband and sons left for Oak Bluffs, this morning, to take part in The Monster Shark Tournament. It costs a small fortune to enter the contest but my husband just called and said he might have to take a big financial hit because he's heard it will be blowing about 50 miles an hour. He's been preparing for this for months and my oldest son flew in from CA ,last night, to have what is a wonderful experience. Que sera, sera.
She had American friends and it used to amuse her when they called her Burl.
We would pronounce it Berrill.
What's in a name?
Beryl is one of those names I look at and say, "the storm off the East coast headed toward New England."
Right here...
Ok, now I know I'll have the information I'll need. Thanks for being here!! (I live near Seattle, so I'm not in personal danger from those crazy storms.)
-- soon, we will control the Universe:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 192048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.
DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Why a warning for Boston and not for New York City ?
These storms are comming from the South and move northward-
would not the New York area be in danger first ?
"It's only a three-hour cruise, Lovey. What could possibly go wrong..."
Hopefully the storms arrival doesn't coincide with high tide in Buzzards Bay. Storm surge to low lying areas in upper Buzzards Bay, near the Cape Cod canal entrance, such as towns like Marion, MA, can be very damaging to properties ... more so than wind damage.
Oy. No more rain!
If only the wind farms in the area had been put up by now. Think of all the electicity that could be generated!!!
People from Marion will escape through the Cape Cod Tunnel.
It's Kennedy's fault! His massive gravity field is drawing it in!!!
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