7/14: Middle East Live Thread

7/15/06 | me

[BurbankKarl]

Israeli gunners cover their ears as an artillery piece fires into southern Lebanon from a position on the border near Kiryat Shmona, northern Israel, Friday, July 14, 2006.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I think he got a camelgram!!!

[jeffers]

"FOX News (Radio) just reported that "the Syrians have just emerged from a high-level meeting and issued a statement to the effect that they will defend Hizbollah. . . ." "


Agreed, this could be media spin of the earlier release by the Syrian Baath Party, but if not, "defend" is indeed a step closer to the line than "support". A firsthand quote would resolve the question.

Nice catch, thanks.

I'd rather not comment on Israeli intentions for Syria, or any future operations either, except those already discussed in the open media by Israel, or others.

I will say this...in all numerical sims run to date, compared to Iraq, Iran is...similar...but Syria is cake. Tons of old stuff, most of which isn't even worth precision munitions.

[DaisyCutter]

According to the Navy, we have 14 Avenger class mine countermeasure ships.

[Txsleuth]

As you can tell...from my last post to you, re: the mine sweepers...

MY memory causes be all kinds of grief lately...so, I will try to remember.

In fact, I will "sleep on it"...maybe it will come to me in my dreams...(not gonna happen)...I can always hope.

[Rte66]

Egyptian civilian ship got some of the hit in Beirut harbor, too - was that what the link was about?

[Txsleuth]

LOL

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Me too but one last thing from the Blogosphere ...Michelle Malkin:

U.N., LEBANON & BOLTON
By Michelle Malkin · July 14, 2006 11:29 AM

**********************************AN EXCERPT **********************************

Getting word that the UN Security Council is meeting now to consider a "presidential statement" on the situation in Lebanon. I'm printing Ambassador John Bolton's full statement to the UNSC's Special Public Session on Lebanon below ........

[Southack]

"2. A three pronged attack into Iraq, a blocking force through Amara to prevent concentrations of Coalition Forces from maneuvering SE from Baghdad, a fast armored thrust SW, bypassing Basra and Kuwait City to seize the Rumailla, Wafra and Ghawar oil fields, and wire them up for destruction, to use as bargaining points, or to strangle western economies. The third prong would be fifth columnists in Iraq, Al-Sadr, etc. The spoils here could attract....global interest.... and possibly even super-power partners."

Oh boy! You should do comedy!

That's hilarious. You've got Iran moving further, faster...against the U.S., than Iran managed against Saddam Hussein in their whole 10 year land war!

Won't happen. Can't happen. The U.S. wiped out and conquered Iraq in 3 weeks. Current resistance in Iraq (e.g. Al Sadr) kills 1 good American per day...far less than drunk driving.

Iran couldn't do the above in 10 years! Against Hussein!

Against the U.S., the above would be short-lived martyrdom.

[racing fan]

"FOX News (Radio) just reported that "the Syrians have just emerged from a high-level meeting and issued a statement to the effect that they will defend Hizbollah. . . ." "


Agreed, this could be media spin of the earlier release by the Syrian Baath Party, but if not, "defend" is indeed a step closer to the line than "support". A firsthand quote would resolve the question.

Nice catch, thanks.

I'd rather not comment on Israeli intentions for Syria, or any future operations either, except those already discussed in the open media by Israel, or others.

I will say this...in all numerical sims run to date, compared to Iraq, Iran is...similar...but Syria is cake. Tons of old stuff, most of which isn't even worth precision munitions.
____________________________________________
Israel won't do anything with Syria until Syrian armed forces invade or attack directly. This is what I would do.
I would prepare for Syria's attack.

For now, I would go after Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon and wipe them out.

[Just Lori]

How are you, Allegra? Stay safe, ok?

[jeffers]

Agreed on every point, and an addition.

You don't have to employ nuclear weapons to receive a nuclear response, if the targets contain millions of curies worth of fuel, test materials, spent fuel rods, etc. That cuts both ways, IMO.

[Txsleuth]

Thank you...I just LOVE freepers...there is always someone who knows...or gets a link to clear things up...that some of us (me) get messed up.

[BurbankKarl]

I wasnt doubting what you heard...I remember in Gulf War 1 they had to dig out wooden hulled boats to clear the Gulf....but the techniques of mine detection and mine laying has certain evolved sinced then... I know they use helicopters dragging sensors now also.

[publana]

marking for later read

[Allegra]

Good to see your measured analysis on here. :-)

Nobody on this side of the world is wasting a lot of time on hand-wringing, either.

[Txsleuth]

Thanks..see you tomorrow.

[Miztiki]

Please ping me to any other live threads like this.

G'nite everyone. Wake me up if anything major happens. ;-)

[jhp]

I think everybody is forgetting something. There is really no question the Hizbullah/Syria/Iran can be handled conventionally. But Syria has hundreds of missiles that can target Israeli population centers with WMD payloads. Iran has tens to hundreds of missiles that can do the same. It doesn't matter that we could take these guys out conventionally, its what they might decide to do in their death theros that worries me.

[jeffers]

No, I've tried three times, no luck, my vision is 20/2200.

Also looked into other consulting options, but most require a TS clearance at my expense. Without prior service, that gets expensive.

I just sit on the sidelines, watch, and try to connect the dots. The wider the net, the more dots, and the more dots, the clearer the patterns. If I come up with anything earth-shaking, which is pretty rare, I have ways of passing it where it needs to go, but any such pipes are one-way only, by mutual agreement.

[jhp]

agreed 100%